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Mafia Kills through Cancer: Causal Evidence from the Land of Fires

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Abstract

This paper provides the first causal evidence that mafia-managed illegal waste disposal increases cancer mortality. We study the Land of Fires in Campania, southern Italy, where Camorra clans entered the waste-disposal market by offering firms low-cost illegal disposal of hazardous industrial waste. This criminal business model transferred the private gains from regulatory evasion to local communities through environmental exposure. Using a municipality-year panel covering all 550 Campanian municipalities from 1982 to 2023, we estimate the long-run effect of exposure on cancer mortality. To address the endogenous location of illegal dumping, we define treatment using the predetermined disposal geography described by former clan member Carmine Schiavone. A difference-in-differences design with municipality fixed effects, province-by-year fixed effects, and time-varying controls shows that exposed municipalities experienced a post- 2000 increase in cancer mortality of 0.17–0.19 deaths per 1,000 residents, about 7.5–8.5 percent of the sample mean. Event-study estimates show no differential pre-trends and indicate that the effect emerges with delay. Placebo corridors and alternative contamination-based treatments do not reproduce the result. The findings identify population health as a channel through which organized crime affects welfare.

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  • Sergio Beraldo & Michela Collaro & Fabio Leone & Immacolata Marino & Domenico Suppa, 2026. "Mafia Kills through Cancer: Causal Evidence from the Land of Fires," CSEF Working Papers 769, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 10 Jul 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:769
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    1. William W. Cooper & Lawrence M. Seiford & Joe Zhu (ed.), 2011. "Handbook on Data Envelopment Analysis," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-1-4419-6151-8, May.
    2. Boussofiane, A. & Dyson, R. G. & Thanassoulis, E., 1991. "Applied data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-15, May.
    3. Marco Dugato & Francesco Calderoni & Gian Maria Campedelli, 2020. "Measuring Organised Crime Presence at the Municipal Level," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 237-261, January.
    4. Marco Di Cataldo & Nicola Mastrorocco, 2022. "Organized Crime, Captured Politicians, and the Allocation of Public Resources [“Mafiaand Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-Experiment]," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(3), pages 774-839.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • P35 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Public Finance
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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