Evolution with Individual and Social Learning in an Agent-Based Stock Market
Recent research has shown a variety of computational techniques to describe evolution in an artificial stock market. One can distinguish the techniques based on at which level the learning of agents is modeled. The previous literature describes learning at either individual or social level. The level of learning is exogenously given, and agents involve only a particular level of learning when they update their rules. But such a setting doesnâ€™t say anything about why agents choose a particular level of learning to update their trading rules. This paper introduces a learning mechanism which allows agents to choose one rule at each period among a set of ideas updated through both individual and social learning. A trading strategy performed well in the past is more likely to be selected by agents regardless it is created at individual or social level. This framework allows agents to choose a decision rule endogenously among a wider set of ideas. With such evolution, the following two questions are examined. First, since agents who have a wider set of ideas to choose are more intelligent, a question would arise if the time series from an economy with intelligent agents would converge to a rational expectation equilibrium (REE). Previous literature like LeBaron (2000) and Arthur et al. (1996) investigates the convergence property to the REE by looking at different time-horizons. It finds that the more information from the market agents get before updating their rules, the market is more likely to converge to the REE. But this paper investigates the convergence property by looking at different degrees of intelligence given a time horizon. The second investigates which level of learning is likely to dominate in the market. This is analyzed by investigating who chooses which level of learning and what proportion of the agents often uses individual or social learning. We analyze a hypothesis that wealthy agents often choose an idea from a set of her private ideas (from individual learning) while some with less wealth frequently imitate ideas from others (from social learning). The result eventually indicates that the agent-based stock market in this paper would possibly explain the mechanism of herding behavior which is often observed in financial markets
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- LeBaron, Blake, 2001.
"Evolution And Time Horizons In An Agent-Based Stock Market,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 225-254, April.
- Blake LeBaron, 1999. "Evolution and Time Horizons in an Agent-Based Stock Market," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1342, Society for Computational Economics.
- Lettau, Martin, 1997. "Explaining the facts with adaptive agents: The case of mutual fund flows," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1117-1147, June.
- Tay, Nicholas S. P. & Linn, Scott C., 2001. "Fuzzy inductive reasoning, expectation formation and the behavior of security prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 321-361, March.
- Arthur, W.B. & Holland, J.H. & LeBaron, B. & Palmer, R. & Tayler, P., 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market," Working papers 9625, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market," Working Papers 96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
- repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:2:p:225-54 is not listed on IDEAS
- Arifovic, Jasmina & Gencay, Ramazan, 2000. "Statistical properties of genetic learning in a model of exchange rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 981-1005, June.
- Chia-Hsuan Yeh & Shu-Heng Chen, 2000. "Toward An Integration Of Social Learning And Individual Learning In Agent-Based Computational Stock Markets:The Approach Based On Population Genetic Programming," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 338, Society for Computational Economics.
- LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
- Arthur, W.B. & LeBaron, B. & Palmer, R., 1997. "Time Series Properties of an Artificial Stock Market," Working papers 9725, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Chen, Shu-Heng & Yeh, Chia-Hsuan, 2001. "Evolving traders and the business school with genetic programming: A new architecture of the agent-based artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 363-393, March.
- Brock, W.A. & Dechert, W.D. & LeBaron, B. & Scheinkman, J.A., 1995. "A Test for Independence Based on the Correlation Dimension," Working papers 9520, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
- Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 1998. "Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 151-170, Summer.
- John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, 02.
- Arifovic, Jasmina, 2001. "Performance Of Rational And Boundedly Rational Agents In A Model With Persistent Exchange-Rate Volatility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 204-224, April.
- Arifovic, Jasmina, 1996. "The Behavior of the Exchange Rate in the Genetic Algorithm and Experimental Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 510-541, June.
- Arifovic, Jasmina, 2001. "Evolutionary dynamics of currency substitution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 395-417, March.
- Vriend, Nicolaas J., 2000. "An illustration of the essential difference between individual and social learning, and its consequences for computational analyses," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, January.
- repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:2:p:204-24 is not listed on IDEAS
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:228. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.