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Robust Control: A Note on the Timing of Model Uncertainty

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  • Arnulfo Rodriguez

Abstract

In this note a one-state, one-control variable quadratic linear problem with robust control and discount factor is developed to examine the optimal response of the first-period control to changes in future model uncertainty. A change in future model uncertainty has an effect on the optimal first-period control response going in the same direction as the one caused by an equal size change in current model uncertainty. However, both analytical and numerical results show that such effect is much lower than the one derived from a change in current model uncertainty. Moreover, such effect is even much lower as the change in model uncertainty moves farther into the future. Finally, the infinite horizon result confirms the reinforcing nature of the effects on the optimal first-period control response of current and future changes in model uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnulfo Rodriguez, 2004. "Robust Control: A Note on the Timing of Model Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 147, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:147
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    File URL: http://repec.org/sce2004/up.20013.1077774780.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick & Heinz Neudecker, "undated". "Numerical Steady State Solutions for Nonlinear Dynamic Optimization Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1996 _003, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Gonzalez, Fidel & Rodriguez, Arnulfo, 2005. "Robust control: A note on the response of the control to changes in the "free" parameter," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 294-299, December.
    3. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, 1996. "The DUALI/DUALPC Software for Optimal Control Models: Introduction," CARE Working Papers 9602, The University of Texas at Austin, Center for Applied Research in Economics.
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    5. J. Tetlow, Robert & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2001. "Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: Does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 911-949, June.
    6. Arnulfo Rodriguez & Fidel Gonzalez, 2003. "Robust Control: A Note on the Response of the Control to Changes in the Free Parameter," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 207, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Thomas J. Sargent & LarsPeter Hansen, 2001. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 60-66, May.
    8. Mercado, P. Ruben & Kendrick, David A., 2000. "Caution in macroeconomic policy: uncertainty and the relative intensity of policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 37-41, July.
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    10. S. Zakovic & B. Rustem, 2003. "Stochastic Optimisation and Worst-Case Analysis in Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 102, Society for Computational Economics.
    11. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, . "Computational Economics," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number comp1.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal control; model uncertainty; robustness; macroeconomic policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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