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Return-based Style Analysis with Time-varying Exposures

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  • Laurens Swinkels, Pieter Jelle VanDerSluis

Abstract

This paper focuses on the estimation of mutual fund styles by return-based style analysis. Usually, the investment style is assumed to be either constant through time, or time variation is implicitly accounted for by using rolling regressions. The former assumption is often contradicted by data analysis, and the latter is inefficient due to its ad hoc chosen window size. We propose to use the Kalman filter to explicitly model time-varying exposures of mutual funds. This leads to a testable model and more efficient use of the data, which reduces the influence of spurious correlation between mutual fund returns and style indices.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurens Swinkels, Pieter Jelle VanDerSluis, 2001. "Return-based Style Analysis with Time-varying Exposures," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 125, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:125
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lakonishok, Josef, et al, 1991. "Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 227-231, May.
    2. ter Horst, Jenke R. & Nijman, Theo E. & de Roon, Frans A., 2004. "Evaluating style analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 29-53, January.
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    4. Alexander, Gordon J. & Benson, P. George & Eger, Carol E., 1982. "Timing Decisions and the Behavior of Mutual Fund Systematic Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(04), pages 579-602, November.
    5. Tae-Hwan Kim, 2005. "Asymptotic and Bayesian Confidence Intervals for Sharpe-Style Weights," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(3), pages 315-343.
    6. French, Kenneth R & Poterba, James M, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 222-226, May.
    7. Ter Horst, J.R. & Nijman, T.E. & de Roon, F.A., 2004. "Evaluating style analysis," Other publications TiSEM 8a501733-7a06-4399-8a43-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
    9. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    10. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    11. Huberman, Gur, 2001. "Familiarity Breeds Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 659-680.
    12. Fisher, Lawrence & Kamin, Jules H., 1985. "Forecasting Systematic Risk: Estimates of “Raw” Beta that Take Account of the Tendency of Beta to Change and the Heteroskedasticity of Residual Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 127-149, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kathryn Holmes & Robert Faff, 2008. "Style analysis, customized benchmarks, and managed funds: new evidence," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 253-258.
    2. repec:sbe:breart:v:26:y:2006:i:1:a:2497 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Darolles, Serge & Vaissié, Mathieu, 2012. "The alpha and omega of fund of hedge fund added value," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1067-1078.
    4. Takaya Fukui & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2016. "Style Analysis with Particle Filtering and Generalized Simulated Annealing," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1010, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    5. repec:wsi:ijfexx:v:04:y:2017:i:02n03:n:s2424786317500372 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Takaya Fukui & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2017. "This paper proposes a new approach to style analysis of mutual funds in a general state space framework with particle filtering and generalized simulated annealing (GSA). Speci cally, we regard the ex," CARF F-Series CARF-F-383, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    7. Martin Bohl & Philipp Kaufmann & Patrick Stephan, 2012. "From Hero to Zero: Evidence of Performance Reversal and Speculative Bubbles in German Renewable Energy Stocks," CQE Working Papers 2412, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    8. Laura Andreu & Cristina Ortiz & José Sarto, 2014. "Herding in the strategic allocations of Spanish pension plan managers," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 658-671, October.
    9. Salotti, Simone & Trecroci, Carmine, 2014. "Multifactor risk loadings and abnormal returns under uncertainty and learning," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 393-404.
    10. Kathryn Holmes & Robert Faff & Iain Clacher, 2010. "Style analysis and dominant index timing: an application to Australian multi-sector managed funds," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 293-301.
    11. Stephanos Papadamou & Nikolaos A. Kyriazis & Lydia Mermigka, 2017. "Japanese Mutual Funds before and after the Crisis Outburst: A Style- and Performance-Analysis," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, March.
    12. Bohl, Martin T. & Kaufmann, Philipp & Stephan, Patrick M., 2013. "From hero to zero: Evidence of performance reversal and speculative bubbles in German renewable energy stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 40-51.
    13. Holmes, Kathryn A. & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Estimating the performance attributes of Australian multi-sector managed funds within a dynamic Kalman filter framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 998-1011, December.
    14. Bodson, Laurent & Cavenaile, Laurent & Sougné, Danielle, 2013. "A global approach to mutual funds market timing ability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 96-101.
    15. Laurent Bodson & Alain Coën & Georges Hübner, 2010. "Dynamic Hedge Fund Style Analysis With Errors-In-Variables," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 33(3), pages 201-221.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kalman Filter; Mutual Funds; Style Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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