On The Informational Content Of Asset Prices
What is the appropriate amount of past information to use in forecasting univariate linear processes? This paper proposes a non-parametric measure useful for sample size selection involving the data's asymptotic pre-dictability (AP). It is shown that the AP of a strictly stationary process is decreasing in its entropy rate. The finite-sample analog of the AP measure is the sample's entropy normalized by its alphabet size. First, Monte Carlo simulations of stationary pdf's indicate that AP increases with sample size, suggesting that "more is better". Second, computing the AP of long series of daily stock index, foreign exchange and interest rate returns suggests that AP varies non-monotonically with sample size. Moreover, the evolution of AP is characterized by strong breaks and øuctuations over time. The computa-tional framework allows a concrete comparison of the informational content of different datasets and their relative predictability.
|Date of creation:||05 Jul 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: CEF 2000, Departament d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Ramon Trias Fargas, 25,27, 08005, Barcelona, Spain|
Fax: +34 93 542 17 46
Web page: http://enginy.upf.es/SCE/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Perron, Pierre, 1997.
"Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Christoffersen, Peter F & Diebold, Francis X, 1996.
"Further Results on Forecasting and Model Selection under Asymmetric Loss,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 561-71, Sept.-Oct.
- Christoffersen & Diebold, . "Further Results on Forecasting and Model Selection Under Asymmetric Loss," Home Pages _059, University of Pennsylvania.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf0:101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.