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Methods for Ex Post Economic Evaluation of Free Trade Agreements

Author

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  • Cheong, David

    () (Johns Hopkins University‘s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Bologna Center)

Abstract

Evaluating the economic impact of an FTA is an important part of the monitoring and surveying process that should follow the establishment of an FTA. This paper presents methods for evaluating the trade and welfare effects of an FTA. These methods show how to (i) compute indicators for the utilization and value of preferences, (ii) qualitatively assess trade creation and diversion, (iii) quantitatively analyze the FTA‘s trade effects with trade indicators and the gravity model, and (iv) make inferences about economic welfare. This paper specifies the formulas, computational techniques, and data used for each evaluation method, and describes how to interpret the output from each method with examples taken from countries such as Viet Nam, Indonesia, and Cambodia. The strengths and limitations of each method are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheong, David, 2010. "Methods for Ex Post Economic Evaluation of Free Trade Agreements," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 59, Asian Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0059
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    File URL: http://aric.adb.org/pdf/workingpaper/Cheong_2010_Ex_Post_Methods_for_Evaluating_FTAs.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carsten Kowalczyk & Raymond Riezman, 2009. "Trade Agreements," CESifo Working Paper Series 2660, CESifo Group Munich.
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    Cited by:

    1. Agnieszka Sapa & Agnieszka Baer-Nawrocka, 2014. "Konwergencja wydajności pracy w rolnictwie a intensywność handlu rolno-żywnościowego w amerykańskich ugrupowaniach handlowych," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 111-131.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    regionalization; evaluation methods; preferential tariffs; trade indicators; gravity model; free trade agreements; Asia;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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