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How to Avoid Household Debt Overhang? An Analytical Framework and Analysis for India

Author

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  • Yoshino, Naoyuki

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Gupta, Prachi

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

We develop an analytical framework using the household utility maximization approach to model stability conditions to avoid household debt overhang. Our theoretical framework suggests that household debt stability is a function of five factors, namely the rate of interest, period of lending, income growth, loan-to-income ratio, and households’ disutility from borrowing parameter. Further, we apply our analytical model to the case of India and estimate household debt stability conditions for Indian households under various scenarios to estimate the ceiling borrowing ratios borrowing below which households can avoid the risk of running into a debt overhang problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshino, Naoyuki & Gupta, Prachi, 2019. "How to Avoid Household Debt Overhang? An Analytical Framework and Analysis for India," ADBI Working Papers 975, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0975
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    2. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael, 2014. "Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 759-780.
    3. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Francesco Trebbi, 2014. "Resolving Debt Overhang: Political Constraints in the Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 1-28, April.
    4. Kaushik Basu, 2009. "A Simple Model of the Financial Crisis of 2007-9 with Implications for the Design of a Stimulus Package," Working Papers id:2179, eSocialSciences.
    5. Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Madhusudan Mohanty & Ilhyock Shim, 2017. "The real effects of household debt in the short and long run," BIS Working Papers 607, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Kaushik Basu, 2011. "A simple model of the financial crisis of 2007‐2009, with implications for the design of a stimulus package," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(1), pages 5-21, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dancho Petrov & Evgeniya Tonkova & Svetlana Todorova, 2020. "Structural and Value Dimensions of Household Indebtedness in Bulgaria," Izvestia Journal of the Union of Scientists - Varna. Economic Sciences Series, Union of Scientists - Varna, Economic Sciences Section, vol. 9(1), pages 17-25, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    debt overhang; household finance; household borrowing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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