Reassessing the Demography Hypothesis: the Great Brazilian Crime Shift
Mimicking the US in 1980 and 1990s, Brazil is a remarkable case of a major shift in homicides. After increasing steadily throughout the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s, homicides reached a peak in 2003, and then fell. I show a strong time-series co-movement between homicide rates and the percentage of the population in 15-24 age bracket. Using a panel of states, I find a very high elasticity of homicide with respect to changes in the 15-24 year-old population (2.4), after controlling for income, income inequality, and state and year fixed effects. I then focus on the case of São Paulo, the largest state in the country, and whose shift in homicides has been particularly acute. City-level panel elasticities are similar to the state-level estimates. Furthermore, the demographic shift in São Paulo was more pronounced than the national one, explaining the particularly large shift in homicides in São Paulo. The large cohort born from the mid 1970 through the early 1980 is the result of a sharp reduction in infant mortality only belatedly followed by acceleration in the reduction of fertility. In line with the Easterlin Hypothesis (Easterlin ), this large cohort faced tough economic conditions. Educational attainment ceased to improve for this cohort, and unemployment rates upon entering the job market were exceptionally high. Thus, the large homicide shift in Brazil is produced by a particularly large and socially fragile cohort.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Rua Marquês de São Vicente, 225, 22453-900 Rio de Janeiro, RJ|
Phone: 021 35271078
Fax: 021 35271084
Web page: http://www.econ.puc-rio.br
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Oded_Galor, 2004.
"The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth,"
2004-13, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Oded Galor, 2005. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 494-504, 04/05.
- Galor, Oded, 2004. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 4714, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Oded Galor, 2004. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," GE, Growth, Math methods 0409005, EconWPA.
- Gustavo Gonzaga & Naércio Menezes Filho & Cristina Terra, 2006.
"Trade Liberalization and the Evolution of Skill Earnings Differentials in Brazil,"
Development Working Papers
216, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
- Gonzaga, Gustavo & Menezes Filho, Naercio & Terra, Cristina, 2006. "Trade liberalization and the evolution of skill earnings differentials in Brazil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 345-367, March.
- Gustavo Gonzaga & Naércio Menezes Filho & Maria Cristina Terra, 2005. "Trade liberalization and the evolution of skill earnings differentials in Brazil," Textos para discussão 503, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Gonzaga, Gustavo Maurício & Menezes Filho, Naércio Aquino & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 2005. "Trade liberalization and the evolution of skill earnings differentials in Brazil," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 585, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Terra, Maria Cristina T. & Gonzaga, Gustavo Maurício & Menezes Filho, Naércio Aquino, 2002. "Trade liberalization and the evolution of skill earnings differentials in Brazil," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 457, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Ciro Biderman & João Manoel Pinho de Mello & Alexandre A Schneider, 2006.
"Dry law and homicides: evidence from the São Paulo metropolitan area,"
Textos para discussão
518, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil), revised Oct 2008.
- Ciro Biderman & JoãoMP DeMello & Alexandre Schneider, 2010. "Dry Laws and Homicides: Evidence from the São Paulo Metropolitan Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(543), pages 157-182, 03.
- João M. P. de Mello & Alexandre Schneider, 2010. "Assessing São Paulo's Large Drop in Homicides: The Role of Demography and Policy Interventions," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Crime: Lessons for and from Latin America, pages 207-235 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rodrigo R. Soares & Javier A. Birchenall, 2004. "Fertility and the Value of Life," 2004 Meeting Papers 232, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ted Joyce, 2004. "Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(1).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:579. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.