IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed018/1216.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Speculative Bubbles, Heterogeneopus Beliefs, and Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Werner

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

This paper develops a general theory of speculative bubbles and speculative trade in dynamic asset markets with short sales restrictions when agents have heterogeneous beliefs and are risk neutral. Speculative bubble arises when the price of an asset exceeds every trader's valuation measured by her willingness to pay if obliged to hold the asset forever. Speculative bubble indicates speculative trade - whoever holds the asset intends to sell it at a later date. We identify a sufficient condition on agents' heterogeneous beliefs for speculative bubbles in equilibrium. Our main focus is on heterogeneous beliefs arising from updating different prior beliefs in Bayesian model of learning. The sufficient condition for beliefs in Bayesian model is that no single prior dominates other agents' priors in the sense of monotone likelihood ratio order. We study asymptotic properties of speculative bubbles in light of merging of conditional beliefs and consistency of priors.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Werner, 2018. "Speculative Bubbles, Heterogeneopus Beliefs, and Learning," 2018 Meeting Papers 1216, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:1216
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2018/paper_1216.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen Morris, 1996. "Speculative Investor Behavior and Learning," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(4), pages 1111-1133.
    2. Harrison Hong & José Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2006. "Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1073-1117, June.
    3. LeRoy,Stephen F. & Werner,Jan, 2014. "Principles of Financial Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107024120, September.
    4. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1137, June.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:3:p:1113-1138 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Darwich, A. R., 2001. "About the absolute continuity and orthogonality for two probability measures," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-8, March.
    7. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
    8. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Klishchuk, Bogdan, 2019. "Speculative Trade and Market Newcomers," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 175, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Werner, Jan, 2022. "Speculative trade under ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    2. Jianping Mei & Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2009. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese A-B Share Premia," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 225-255, November.
    3. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    4. Wei Xiong & Jialin Yu, 2011. "The Chinese Warrants Bubble," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2723-2753, October.
    5. Liu, Clark & Wang, Shujing & Wei, K.C. John, 2021. "Demand shock, speculative beta, and asset prices: Evidence from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Jianping Mei & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: An Analysis of Chinese A-B Share Premia," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000867, UCLA Department of Economics.
    7. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Erik Eyster & Matthew Rabin & Dimitri Vayanos, 2019. "Financial Markets Where Traders Neglect the Informational Content of Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(1), pages 371-399, February.
    9. Jose A. Scheinkman, 2013. "Speculation, Trading and Bubbles Third Annual Arrow Lecture," Working Papers 1458, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    10. Tibor Neugebauer & Sascha Füllbrunn, 2013. "Deflating Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Comparative Statics of Margin Regulations," LSF Research Working Paper Series 13-14, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    11. Utz Weitzel & Christoph Huber & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Florian Lindner & Julia Rose & Lauren Cohen, 2020. "Bubbles and Financial Professionals," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2659-2696.
    12. Bradley Jones, 2014. "Identifying Speculative Bubbles: A Two-Pillar Surveillance Framework," IMF Working Papers 2014/208, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Julien Pénasse & Luc Renneboog & José A Scheinkman & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "When a Master Dies: Speculation and Asset Float [Optimal financial crises]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3840-3879.
    14. Turan G. Bali & Andriy Bodnaruk & Anna Scherbina & Yi Tang, 2018. "Unusual News Flow and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4137-4155, September.
    15. Harrison Hong & David A. Sraer, 2016. "Speculative Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2095-2144, October.
    16. Michael Kirchler & Caroline Bonn & Jürgen Huber & Michael Razen, 2014. "The "Inflow-Effect" - Trader Inflow and Bubble Formation in Asset Markets," Working Papers 2014-22, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    17. Ding, Rong & Cheng, Peng, 2011. "Speculative trading, price pressure and overvaluation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 419-442, July.
    18. Andrew Hertzberg, 2018. "A Theory of Disclosure in Speculative Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(12), pages 5787-5806, December.
    19. Daniel Andrei & Bruce I. Carlin, 2017. "Asset Pricing in the Quest for the New El Dorado," NBER Working Papers 23455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed018:1216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.