War, resource competition and development
A growth model is set up where war, population, and technology interact endogenously, capturing some trends observed throughout long-run human history. Agents compete for food for their survival. In environments with scarce resources -- meaning high population density, and/or low levels of technology -- agents allocate more of their time to fight for resources, which translates into a higher probability of war. Because technology is an input both in food production and conflict, technological progress exerts two opposing effects on killing: on the one hand, it mitigates resource scarcity, making war less likely; on the other hand, if war breaks out it is deadlier the more advanced is the level of technology. An economy may transit onto a path of peaceful prosperity where standards of living are rising, and the probability of war approaches zero. In the transition, however, it may pass a phase of excessive killing, as rising living standards have not yet made war an improbable event, but rising levels of technology have made war extremely lethal if and when it breaks out. A preliminary quantitative exercise indicates that the model can replicate an inversely U-shaped pattern of war and genocide deaths seen worldwide over the 20th century. Many of the underlying mechanisms also seem consistent with some important stylized facts of growth and war, in particular in 20th century Europe
|Date of creation:||03 Dec 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Galor, Oded & Moav, Omer, 2001.
"Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2727, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection And The Origin Of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191, November.
- Galor, Oded & Moav, Omer, 2000. "Natural Selection and the Origin of Economic Growth," Arbetsrapport 2000:5, Institute for Futures Studies.
- Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2000. "Natural Selection and the Origin of economic Growth," Working Papers 2000-18, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Grossman, Herschel I, 1991. "A General Equilibrium Model of Insurrections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 912-21, September.
- Oded Galor, 2004.
"From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory,"
GE, Growth, Math methods
- Jones Charles I., 2001.
"Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-45, August.
- Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run," NBER Working Papers 7375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles I. Jones, . "Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run," Working Papers 99008, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Tamura, Robert, 2002. "Human capital and the switch from agriculture to industry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 207-242, December.
- Grossman, Herschel I & Kim, Minseong, 1995. "Swords or Plowshares? A Theory of the Security of Claims to Property," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1275-88, December.
- Kremer, Michael, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716, August.
- David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
- Grossman, Herschel I. & Mendoza, Juan, 2003. "Scarcity and appropriative competition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 747-758, November.
- Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-73, October.
- Tamura, Robert, 1996. "From decay to growth: A demographic transition to economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1237-1261.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed006:530. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.