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Who Gains the Most in Preferential Trade Agreements?

Using recent extensive data of bilateral trade in manufacturing, we study the relations between trade flows, each country’s technological levels, and geographic barriers. Then, we calibrate the equilibrium of a general equilibrium model to explore how a Trans-Pacific Partnership affects each country’s welfare and trade flows. We decompose the total change of trade flows from member countries into income effects and substitution effects, and investigate the factors that affect trade flows. We demonstrate that a positive coalition externality could exist in that some nonmember countries could gain more than member countries and further investigate under which circumstances it arises.

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File URL: http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/abstract/475.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series Discussion Papers Series with number 475.

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Date of creation: 17 Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:475
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  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  2. Burbidge, John B. & James A. DePater & Gordon M. Meyers & Abhijit Sengupta, 1997. "A Coalition-Formation Approach to Equilibrium Federations and Trading Blocs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 940-56, December.
  3. Fernando Alvarez & Robert E. Lucas, 2005. "General Equilibrium Analysis of the Eaton-Kortum Model of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 11764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1994. "Capturing NAFTA's impact with applied general equilibrium models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 17-34.
  5. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2009. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," NBER Working Papers 15628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2007. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," NBER Working Papers 12927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
  8. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," Working Paper 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. Helpman, Elhanan & Antras, Pol & Aghion, Philippe, 2007. "Negotiating Free Trade," Scholarly Articles 3351239, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
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