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Testing Dividend Signalling Models

Author

Listed:
  • Dan Bernhardt

    (University of Illinois)

  • Ray Farrow
  • J. Fiona Robertson

Abstract

This paper derives a key monotonicity property common to dividend signalling models: the greater the rate that dividend income is taxed relative to capital gains income, the greater the value of information revealed by a given dividend yield, and hence the greater the associated excess return. This monotonicity condition allows us to distinguish the hypothesis that dividends are used as a signalling device from the hypothesis that dividends contain information but are not used as Spencian signals. The monotonicity conditions are tested with robust non-parametric techniques. Although we find strong evidence that dividend announcements contain information, we find no evidence to support dividend signalling. The same results are inconsistent with tax-based CAPM arguments.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Bernhardt & Ray Farrow & J. Fiona Robertson, 1994. "Testing Dividend Signalling Models," Working Paper 895, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:895
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    File URL: https://www.econ.queensu.ca/sites/econ.queensu.ca/files/qed_wp_895.pdf
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    2. Wang, Yijing, 2022. "A Liquidity-based Resolution to the Dividend Puzzle," MPRA Paper 115560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kao, Lanfeng & Chen, Anlin, 2013. "How product market competition affects dividend payments in a weak investor protection economy: Evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 21-39.
    4. Batabyal, Sourav & Robinson, Richard, 2017. "Capital change and stability when dividends convey signals," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 158-167.
    5. Raj Chetty & Joseph Rosenberg & Emmanuel Saez, 2005. "The Effects of Taxes on Market Responses to Dividend Announcements and Payments: What Can we Learn from the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut?," NBER Working Papers 11452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Roni Michaely & Stefano Rossi & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "The Information Content of Dividends: Safer Profits, Not Higher Profits," CESifo Working Paper Series 6751, CESifo.
    7. Blau, Benjamin M. & Fuller, Kathleen P. & Van Ness, Robert A., 2011. "Short selling around dividend announcements and ex-dividend days," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 628-639, June.
    8. Paul Tanyi & David B. Smith & Xiaoyan Cheng, 2021. "Does firm payout policy affect shareholders’ dissatisfaction with directors?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 279-320, July.
    9. Fayez A. Elayan & Jingyu Li & Maureen E. Donnelly & Allister W. Young, 2009. "Changes to Income Trust Taxation in Canada: Investor Reaction and Dividend Clientele Theory," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5‐6), pages 725-753, June.
    10. David Feldman & Charles Trzcinka & Russell Winer, 2015. "Pricing under noisy signaling," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 435-454, August.
    11. Raj Chetty & Emmanuel Saez, 2005. "Dividend Taxes and Corporate Behavior: Evidence from the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 791-833.
    12. Michaely, Roni & Rossi, Stefano & Weber, Michael, 2021. "Signaling safety," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 405-427.
    13. Robert Joliet & Aline Muller, 2015. "Dividends and Foreign Performance Signaling," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 19(2), pages 77-107, June.
    14. Islam Mohammad Shahidul & Adnan Atm, 2019. "Dividend Practices in Listed Companies: Study on the Manufacturing Sector of Bangladesh," Management of Organizations: Systematic Research, Sciendo, vol. 81(1), pages 1-19, June.
    15. Kuo, Nan-Ting & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2013. "Effects of dividend tax and signaling on firm valuation: Evidence from taxable stock dividend announcements," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 157-180.

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    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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