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A Monte Carlo Simulation Framework to Track Panama NDC Target

Author

Listed:
  • Suarez, Ronny

Abstract

The 2015 Paris Agreement represents a restarting point for combating climate change. The Agreement introduces the National Determined Contributions (NDC) to control greenhouse gas emissions. This paper provides a step-by-step framework to evaluate Panama’s renewable energy contribution commitment in terms of CO2eq mitigation. Monte Carlo Simulations are used to compute dynamic scenarios of MtCO2eq emissions determining that the occurrence of delays in the entry into operation of specific projects combined with the presence of El Niño phenomenon could increase, up to 45%, the value of the CO2eq emissions compared against baseline scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Suarez, Ronny, 2019. "A Monte Carlo Simulation Framework to Track Panama NDC Target," MPRA Paper 97022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:97022
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/97022/1/MPRA_paper_97022.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Paris Agreement; NDC; Panama; CO2eq; Monte Carlo;

    JEL classification:

    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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