Combinación de un enfoque de gravedad y de bienestar para la evaluación de la transición solar en Chile[The combination of gravity and welfare approaches for evaluating the solar transition in Chile]

This work links a gravity model and a welfare analysis through an empirical application to the solar energy transition in Chile. First of all, an econometric estimation is made using a gravity equation of the commercial flows of photovoltaic parts and components required in the solar industry to a group of countries with the most active economies in solar industry, which allows to determine the type of financing what that are using to transform their matrix energy. Secondly, a welfare analysis is carried out that combines the information provided by the gravity equation in a partial equilibrium model to quantify the welfare generated by the situations that are projected in the medium term in the solar energy industry in Chile, considering the financing cost. The gravity equation indicates that both tariff and non-tariff measures have a different impact on the commercial flows of the industry and, on the other hand, both foreign direct investment and other investments are influencing positively and with high statistics significance on solar energy development. Then, the welfare analysis applied to the energy transition in Chile, indicates that, by opting for a specific financing, there will be a positive welfare, not just for the applicant (Chile), but also for the offered (China), allowing the exception in case of Chile's demand could not be satisfied. Finally, we conclude that the proposed energy transition is beneficial in terms of national and international welfare, but we believe that the extension of such analysis should include the savings generated by the reduction in fossil fuel imports, as well as the quantification of the additional environmental and health benefits generated by opting for the development of solar energy.