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Sri Lanka – the wonder of Asia: analyzing monthly tourist arrivals in the post-war era


  • Nyoni, Thabani


Using the monthly time series data, ranging over the period June 2009 to December 2018, the study applied the generalized Box-Jenkins SARIMA approach in an attempt to model and forecast international tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka.The ADF tests indicate that the tourism series is I (1). The study identified the minimum MAPE value and subsequently presented the SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 model as the optimal model to forecast tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka. Analysis of the residuals of the SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 model indicate that the selected model is stable and acceptable for forecasting tourism demand in Sri Lanka. The forecasted international tourist arrivals over the period January 2019 to December 2020 show a generally upward trend.In order to accommodate the forecasted growing numbers of international tourists, there is need for the construction of more infrastructure facilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Sri Lanka – the wonder of Asia: analyzing monthly tourist arrivals in the post-war era," MPRA Paper 96790, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96790

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    1. repec:eee:anture:v:75:y:2019:i:c:p:379-392 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Suleman, Nasiru & Sarpong, Solomon, 2012. "Forecasting Milled Rice Production in Ghana Using Box-Jenkins Approach," International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development (IJAMAD), Iranian Association of Agricultural Economics, vol. 2(2), pages 1-6, June.
    3. Samina Khalil & Mehmood Khan Kakar & Waliullah, 2007. "Role of Tourism in Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Economy," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 985-995.
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    5. Prasanna-Perera Lalith Welgamage, 2015. "Tourism Economics in Sri Lanka: An Econometric Analysis," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 90-101, January.
    6. Ette Harrison Etuk, 2012. "Predicting Inflation Rates Of Nigeria Using A Seasonal Box-Jenkins Model," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 1-3.
    7. Peter Schulze & Alexander Prinz, 2009. "Forecasting container transshipment in Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(22), pages 2809-2815.
    8. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 87737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Naira / USD Exchange Rate In Nigeria: a Box - Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 88622, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Aug 2018.
    10. Naudé, Wim & Saayman, Andrea, 2005. "Determinants of tourist arrivals in Africa: a panel data regression analysis," MPRA Paper 16479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Tisdell, Clement A. & Bandara, Ranjith, 2004. "Tourism as a contributor to development in Sri Lanka: An overview and a case study," Economics, Ecology and Environment Working Papers 48975, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    12. P. Srinivasan & Santhosh Kumar P. K & L. Ganesh, 2012. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 211-226, September.
    13. Andrea Saayman and Ilse Botha, 2015. "Evaluating Non-Linear Approaches in Forecasting Tourist Arrivals," Working Papers 492, Economic Research Southern Africa.
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    More about this item


    Forecasting; international tourism; SARIMA; Sri Lanka; tourism; tourist arrivals;

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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