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Predicting Inflation Rates Of Nigeria Using A Seasonal Box-Jenkins Model

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  • Ette Harrison Etuk

Abstract

Time series analysis of Nigerian monthly Inflation Rates (INFL) Data is done. It is observed that it is seasonal. Based on its autocorrelation structure as depicted by the correlogram, the multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, (1, 1, 0)x(0, 1, 1)12, is fitted to the series. The model is shown to be adequate and the 2012 forecasts are obtained on the basis of it. These forecasts are shown to agree closely with the observations.

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  • Ette Harrison Etuk, 2012. "Predicting Inflation Rates Of Nigeria Using A Seasonal Box-Jenkins Model," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 1-3.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:stecon:v:1:y:2012:i:3:f:1_3_3
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    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Akingbola ODUNTAN & Olusola Osho AJAYI, 2023. "ARIMA forecast of Nigerian inflation rates with Covid-19 pandemic event in focus," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(637), W), pages 83-98, Winter.
    2. Anam Iqbal & Basheer Ahmad & Kanwal Iqbal & Asad Ali, 2018. "Fourier Transformation on Model Fitting for Pakistan Inflation Rate," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 8(1), pages 84-94, March.
    3. Mladenović Jelena & Lepojević Vinko & Janković-Milić Vesna, 2016. "Modelling and Prognosis of the Export of the Republic of Serbia by Using Seasonal Holt-Winters and Arima Method," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 54(2), pages 233-260, June.
    4. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Sri Lanka – the wonder of Asia: analyzing monthly tourist arrivals in the post-war era," MPRA Paper 96790, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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