IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/7582.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Market Returns and Weak-Form Efficiency: the case of the Ghana Stock Exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Frimpong, Joseph Magnus
  • Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu

Abstract

This paper examines the weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in the case of the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) an emerging market. Daily returns from the Databank Stock Index (DSI) over a 5-year period 1999-2004 were used for the exercise. Random walk (RW) and GARCH(1,1) models are used as the basis for our analysis. The GSE DSI returns series exhibit volatility clustering, an indication of inefficiency on the GSE. The weak-form efficient market (random walk) hypothesis was rejected for the GSE, meaning that the market is inefficient. The inefficient market has important implications for investors, both domestic and international. Knowledge of profitable arbitrage opportunities due to market predictability serves to attract investors to diversify from more efficient markets to invest on the GSE bourse to increase their returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Frimpong, Joseph Magnus & Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu, 2007. "Market Returns and Weak-Form Efficiency: the case of the Ghana Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 7582, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Mar 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7582
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7582/1/MPRA_paper_7582.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    2. Chris Brooks & Simon Burke, 2003. "Information criteria for GARCH model selection," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 557-580.
    3. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    4. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Feyyaz Zeren & Filiz Konuk, 2013. "Testing The Random Walk Hypothesis For Emerging Markets: Evidence From Linear And Non-Linear Unit Root Tests," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 8(4), pages 61-71, december.
    2. Isaac Quaye & Alfred Sarbah & Joseph Boadi Nyamaah & Mavis Aidoo & Yinping Mu, 2020. "Intra-Industry Information Transfers and Firm Value: Evidence From Ghana’s Banking Industry," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, November.
    3. Gideon Boako & Maurice Omane-Adjepong & Joseph Magnus Frimpong, 2016. "Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Nexus in Ghana: A Bayesian Quantile Regression Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(1), pages 149-179, March.
    4. James Mark Gbeda & James Atta Peprah, 2018. "Day of the week effect and stock market volatility in Ghana and Nairobi stock exchanges," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(4), pages 727-745, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    2. Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Quiterie de Rorthays, 2009. "More on the volatility-trading volume relationship in emerging markets: The Chinese stock market," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 779-799.
    3. J. Doyne Farmer, 2002. "Market force, ecology and evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 11(5), pages 895-953, November.
    4. Angelidis, Timotheos & Benos, Alexandros & Degiannakis, Stavros, 2004. "The Use of GARCH Models in VaR Estimation," MPRA Paper 96332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ana Isabel Bezerra Cavalcanti, 2003. "Instabilidade e Não-Linearidades nos Mercados Financeiros," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] c52, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Remes, Piia, 2013. "Putting a Price on Carbon – Econometric Essays on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and its Impacts," Research Reports 62, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    7. A. Gómez-Águila & J. E. Trinidad-Segovia & M. A. Sánchez-Granero, 2022. "Improvement in Hurst exponent estimation and its application to financial markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, December.
    8. Johann Lussange & Ivan Lazarevich & Sacha Bourgeois-Gironde & Stefano Palminteri & Boris Gutkin, 2021. "Modelling Stock Markets by Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 113-147, January.
    9. Subrata ROY, 2021. "Volatility Forecasting, Market Efficiency and Effect of Recession of SRI Indices," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(627), S), pages 259-284, Summer.
    10. Wilhelm Berghorn & Sascha Otto, 2017. "Mandelbrot Market-Model and Momentum," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(3), pages 1-26, July.
    11. Sam Howison & David Lamper, 2001. "Trading volume in models of financial derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 119-135.
    12. Claudeci Da Silva & Hugo Agudelo Murillo & Joaquim Miguel Couto, 2014. "Early Warning Systems: Análise De Ummodelo Probit De Contágio De Crise Dos Estados Unidos Para O Brasil(2000-2010)," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 110, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    13. Sung Ik Kim, 2022. "ARMA–GARCH model with fractional generalized hyperbolic innovations," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.
    14. SENARATHNE W Chamil & JIANGUO Wei, 2018. "Do Investors Mimic Trading Strategies Of Foreign Investors Or The Market: Implications For Capital Asset Pricing," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 13(3), pages 171-205, December.
    15. Alessio Emanuele Biondo & Alessandro Pluchino & Andrea Rapisarda & Dirk Helbing, 2013. "Are Random Trading Strategies More Successful than Technical Ones?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-13, July.
    16. Senarathne, Chamil W & Jayasinghe, Prabhath, 2017. "Information Flow Interpretation of Heteroskedasticity for Capital Asset Pricing: An Expectation-based View of Risk," MPRA Paper 78771, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Apr 2017.
    17. Shi, Leilei & Wang, Binghong & Guo, Xinshuai & Li, Honggang, 2021. "A price dynamic equilibrium model with trading volume weights based on a price-volume probability wave differential equation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Aatola, Piia, 2013. "Putting a Price on Carbon – Econometric Essays on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme and its Impacts," Research Reports P62, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Leung, Henry & Schiereck, Dirk & Schroeder, Florian, 2017. "Volatility spillovers and determinants of contagion: Exchange rate and equity markets during crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 169-180.
    20. Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Sanjay Sehgal & N.R. Bhanumurthy, 2011. "A search for long‐range dependence and chaotic structure in Indian stock market," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 96-104, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ghana Stock Exchange; FINSAP; efficient market hypothesis; nonlinearity test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7582. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.