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Spot Ve Vadeli̇ İşlem Fi̇yatlarinin Varyanslari Arasindaki̇ Nedenselli̇k Testi̇
[Causality in variance test between spot and futures prices]

Author

Listed:
  • Cevik, Emrah Ismail
  • Pekkaya, Mehmet

Abstract

Volatility in financial markets urges importance of risk management with respect to investors and especially firms. Information and interaction between spot and futures markets plays an important role on formation of market prices. In this study, causality and information flows are examined on spot and futures prices of ISE 100 Index, US Dollar, and Euro which are traded at Turkish Derivatives Exchange (VOB). Dynamic causality test that is originally created by Cheung and Ng (1996) is applied. Dynamic causality test results show that in the ISE 100 Index model spot prices affect futures prices and in the exchange model futures prices affect spot prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Pekkaya, Mehmet, 2007. "Spot Ve Vadeli̇ İşlem Fi̇yatlarinin Varyanslari Arasindaki̇ Nedenselli̇k Testi̇ [Causality in variance test between spot and futures prices]," MPRA Paper 71301, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71301
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/71301/1/MPRA_paper_71301.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
    3. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    4. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2005. "Causality in variance and the type of traders in crude oil futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 527-539, May.
    5. Joshua Turkington & David Walsh, 1999. "Price Discovery and Causality in the Australian Share Price Index Futures Market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 24(2), pages 97-113, December.
    6. Andrew H. McCallum & Tao Wu, 2005. "Do oil futures prices help predict future oil prices?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec30.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic causality; ARMA-GARCH; Correlation of spot-futures.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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