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Is Climate Change Likely to Lead to Higher Net Internal Migration? The Republic of Yemen’s Case

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph, George
  • Wodon, Quentin
  • Liverani, Andrea
  • Blankespoor, Brian

Abstract

Concerns abound about the potential impact of climate change on future migration, especially in the Middle East and North Africa, one of the regions that is likely to suffer the most from climate change. Yet it is not clear whether so far climate patterns have been a key driver of internal migration in countries such as Yemen, despite the pressures created by water scarcity. By combining data from Yemen’s latest census and a weather database as well as other geographic information, we analyze the determinants of past net internal migration rates. Next, using future climate change scenarios, we predict the potential impact of rising temperatures on future net internal migration rates. The results suggest that while climate does have an impact on net internal migration rates, this impact is limited, so that on the basis of past patterns of climate and migration, rising temperature may not have a large impact on future net internal migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph, George & Wodon, Quentin & Liverani, Andrea & Blankespoor, Brian, 2014. "Is Climate Change Likely to Lead to Higher Net Internal Migration? The Republic of Yemen’s Case," MPRA Paper 56937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56937
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56937/1/MPRA_paper_56937.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
    2. Quentin Wodon & Andrea Liverani & George Joseph & Nathalie Bougnoux, 2014. "Climate Change and Migration : Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18929, December.
    3. Wodon, Quentin & Burger, Nicholas & Grant, Audra & Liverani, Andrea, 2014. "Climate Change, Migration, and Adaptation in the MENA Region," MPRA Paper 56927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Quentin Wodon & Andrea Liverani, 2014. "Climate Change and Migration in the MENA Region," World Bank Publications - Reports 22594, The World Bank Group.
    5. Chris Elbers & Jean O. Lanjouw & Peter Lanjouw, 2003. "Micro--Level Estimation of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 355-364, January.
    6. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Report 2011 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2011 : Conflits, sécurité et développement - Abrégé]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4389, December.
    7. World Bank, 2010. "Yemen - Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on the Water and Agricultural Sectors and the Policy Implications," World Bank Publications - Reports 2943, The World Bank Group.
    8. World Bank, 2011. "Poor Places, Thriving People : How the Middle East and North Africa Can Rise Above Spatial Disparities [Lieux pauvres, populations prospères : Comment le Moyen-Orient et l'Afrique du Nord peuvent s," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2255, December.
    9. George Joseph & Quentin Wodon, 2013. "Is Internal Migration in Yemen Driven by Climate or Socio-economic Factors?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 295-310, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbora Šedová & Lucia Čizmaziová & Athene Cook, 2021. "A meta-analysis of climate migration literature," CEPA Discussion Papers 29, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Raphael J. Nawrotzki & Jack DeWaard & Maryia Bakhtsiyarava & Jasmine Trang Ha, 2017. "Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: exploring nonlinearities and thresholds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 243-258, January.
    3. Wodon, Quentin & Liverani, Andrea, 2014. "Climate Change and Migration in the MENA Region: An Overview," MPRA Paper 56926, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Wodon, Quentin & Burger, Nicholas & Grant, Audra & Liverani, Andrea, 2014. "Climate Change, Migration, and Adaptation in the MENA Region," MPRA Paper 56927, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Migration; Yemen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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