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Is Climate Change Likely to Lead to Higher Net Internal Migration? The Republic of Yemen’s Case

Listed author(s):
  • Joseph, George
  • Wodon, Quentin
  • Liverani, Andrea
  • Blankespoor, Brian

Concerns abound about the potential impact of climate change on future migration, especially in the Middle East and North Africa, one of the regions that is likely to suffer the most from climate change. Yet it is not clear whether so far climate patterns have been a key driver of internal migration in countries such as Yemen, despite the pressures created by water scarcity. By combining data from Yemen’s latest census and a weather database as well as other geographic information, we analyze the determinants of past net internal migration rates. Next, using future climate change scenarios, we predict the potential impact of rising temperatures on future net internal migration rates. The results suggest that while climate does have an impact on net internal migration rates, this impact is limited, so that on the basis of past patterns of climate and migration, rising temperature may not have a large impact on future net internal migration.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56937/1/MPRA_paper_56937.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 56937.

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Date of creation: Jun 2014
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56937
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  1. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
  2. Chris Elbers & Jean O. Lanjouw & Peter Lanjouw, 2003. "Micro--Level Estimation of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 355-364, January.
  3. Quentin Wodon & Andrea Liverani & George Joseph & Nathalie Bougnoux, 2014. "Climate Change and Migration : Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 18929, September.
  4. World Bank, 2010. "Yemen - Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on the Water and Agricultural Sectors and the Policy Implications," World Bank Other Operational Studies 2943, The World Bank.
  5. Wodon, Quentin & Burger, Nicholas & Grant, Audra & Liverani, Andrea, 2014. "Climate Change, Migration, and Adaptation in the MENA Region," MPRA Paper 56927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. George Joseph & Quentin Wodon, 2013. "Is Internal Migration in Yemen Driven by Climate or Socio-economic Factors?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 295-310, May.
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