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Nexus between Oil Revenue, Non-oil Export and Industrial Output in Nigeria: An Application of the VAR Model


  • Riman, Hodo. B
  • Akpan, Emmanuel S.
  • Offiong, Amenawa I.
  • Ojong, Cornelius M.


The study had set forth to explore the intertwining relationship that exist between oil revenue shock, non-oil export and industrial output in Nigeria. In achieving this objective the study utilized data spanning the period 1970-2010. This period captured the major era of regime shift (changes in governance) and policy administration in Nigeria. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and cointegration technique were used to examine the long run relationship, while the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to analyze the short-run behavior of the variables. The Johansen cointegration analysis suggests that a long run behavior exist between oil revenue shock, non-oil export, policy/regime shift and industrial output in Nigeria. The short-run result showed that the speed at which industrial output will converge towards long-run equilibrium after experiencing shock from oil revenue is very slow. It therefore would take a very slow process for industrial output to recover from shock arising from variation in oil revenue. The long run result shows that oil revenue shock and policy/regime shift had negative impact on industrial output and non-oil export. The impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis suggest that the major drivers of industrial development in Nigeria are non-oil export, regime shift and oil revenue. Thus innovations from these variables impact severely on industrial growth in Nigeria. The study therefore suggest among other things that the panacea to industrial growth in Nigeria rest on diversifying the economy away from crude oil export and ensuring a stable government in Nigeria that will endure long enough to sustain industrial and other economic policies.

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  • Riman, Hodo. B & Akpan, Emmanuel S. & Offiong, Amenawa I. & Ojong, Cornelius M., 2013. "Nexus between Oil Revenue, Non-oil Export and Industrial Output in Nigeria: An Application of the VAR Model," MPRA Paper 53279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53279

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. K. A. Al Mamun & H. K. Nath, 2005. "Export-led growth in Bangladesh: a time series analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 361-364.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Riman, Hodo B. & Akpan, Emmanuel S. & Duke II, Joe & Mboto, Helen, 2011. "Industrial Production and Non-oil Export: Assessing the Long-run Implication on Economic Growth in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 55214, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    7. Ahmad, Jaleel & Harnhirun, Somchai, 1995. "Unit roots and cointegration in estimating causality between exports and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the ASEAN countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 329-334, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Varahrami, Vida, 2015. "Survey Effects of Oil Income on Nonoil Export (Case Study: Iran)," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 15-17.
    2. Vida VARAHRAMI, 2015. "Survey Effects of Oil Income on Nonoil Export Case Study: Iran," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 15-17, March.

    More about this item


    Structural Adjustment Programme; Industrial Production; Non-oil export; Economic growth; Co-integration; Oil revenue shock;

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage


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