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Industrial Production and Non-oil Export: Assessing the Long-run Implication on Economic Growth in Nigeria


  • Riman, Hodo B.
  • Akpan, Emmanuel S.
  • Duke II, Joe
  • Mboto, Helen


The aim of this paper is to identify the role industrial sector plays in driving the GDP of Nigeria. The paper further seeks to predict the long-run behavioral relationship between industrial production, non-oil exports and economic growth in Nigeria using data from 1970 – 2007. Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) was utilized to establish the co-integrating relationship between industrial production, non-oil exports and GDP. The paper reveals the existence of a positive and significant uni-directional relationship that runs from industrial production to non-oil exports. It was further evident in the study that the current policies on industrial production in Nigerian do not sufficiently encourage non-oil export. The paper therefore predicts an imminent collapse of the Nigerian manufacturing industries in the nearest future if immediate remedial measures are not quickly taken to strengthen the ailing industries. The paper among other things encourages the government to strengthen the legislative and supervisory framework of the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme in Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • Riman, Hodo B. & Akpan, Emmanuel S. & Duke II, Joe & Mboto, Helen, 2011. "Industrial Production and Non-oil Export: Assessing the Long-run Implication on Economic Growth in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 55214, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55214

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. K. A. Al Mamun & H. K. Nath, 2005. "Export-led growth in Bangladesh: a time series analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 361-364.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    6. Ahmad, Jaleel & Harnhirun, Somchai, 1995. "Unit roots and cointegration in estimating causality between exports and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the ASEAN countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 329-334, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Riman, Hodo. B & Akpan, Emmanuel S. & Offiong, Amenawa I. & Ojong, Cornelius M., 2013. "Nexus between Oil Revenue, Non-oil Export and Industrial Output in Nigeria: An Application of the VAR Model," MPRA Paper 53279, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Structural Adjustment Programme; Industrial Production; Non-oil export; Economic growth; Co-integration;

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General


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