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More on Analyzing the Phillips Curve for the United States, 1950-1975

Listed author(s):
  • Cebula, Richard

This study has questioned the use of single-equation estimates so common in the analysis of the Phillips curve relation. The analysis in Section II and the empirical results in both Sections III and IV suggest that further research on the Phillips curve relation should consider the merits of using simultaneous-equations models and estimating by TSLS. Failure to allow for possible simultaneity problems, such as might exist between the rate of change of money wage and the inflation rate, may result in empirical results and subsequent policy statements which have very questionable validity and relevance. Given the importance of Phillips curve research for economic policy, the methodological issue at hand clearly warrants, indeed requires, further examination.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 50227.

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Date of creation: 05 Apr 1979
Publication status: Published in Economia Internazionale 1.33(1980): pp. 26-35
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50227
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  1. O. C. Ashenfelter & G. E. Johnson & J. H. Pencavel, 1972. "Trade Unions and the Rate of Change of Money Wages in United States Manufacturing Industry," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 27-54.
  2. Frank Brechling, 1968. "The Trade-Off between Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 712-712.
  3. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678-678.
  4. Laidler, David, 1973. "Simultaneous Fluctuations in Prices and Output-A Business Cycle Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 60-72, February.
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