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Examination of VaR after long term capital management


  • Yalincak, Hakan
  • Li, Yu
  • Tong, Mike


The 1998 failure of Long-Term Capital Management (‘LTCM’), a very large and prominent Greenwich, Connecticut based hedge fund, is said to have nearly brought down the world financial system. Over the years, few financial debacles such as LTCM, have been so often written about or discussed without a firm conclusion on what went wrong. What brought the “genius” managers of LTCM to their knees? Was it hubris, or was it something more? Various commentators have jumped on LTCM’s significant leverage ratio or engaged in second-guessing of management’s decision in 1997 to return $2.7 billion of investor capital to increase leverage, and thereby, returns. Others have faulted the lack of transparency at LTCM or faulted regulators for a lack of oversight, criticized regulators for arranging the bailout, while others still have pinpointed the debacle on the failure of LTCM’s risk management prowess. This paper avoids the blame and identifies the multiple factors, both management risk management blunders, as well as inherent flaws in the risk metric used by LTCM – Value at Risk (VaR) – a commonly used risk metric in the financial industry today.

Suggested Citation

  • Yalincak, Hakan & Li, Yu & Tong, Mike, 2005. "Examination of VaR after long term capital management," MPRA Paper 40152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40152

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    2. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    More about this item


    Hakan Yalincak; Mike Tong; Yu Li; New York University; Value At Risk; Long Term Capital Management; Volatility; Swap Spreads; Convergence Arbitrage;

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists


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