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中国产出缺口的估计(1985-2009)及两种评估方法的比较
[China's output gap estimates (1985-2009) and comparison of the two estimation methods]

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  • Liu, Fei

Abstract

In this paper, we used the production function method and the Van Norden method to estimate China's output gap (and potential output) from 1985 to 2009 year,and comparise the two methods. The results showed that: (1) the results of different methods are basically consistent with our economic situation. (2) Chinese economic stability enhanced after the emergence of sharp fluctuations, so development of domestic demand is the only way to stabilize the economy. (3) the results estimated by the Van Norden are more sensitive than PF method's . (4) From 2000, the potential output of China has increased.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Fei, 2011. "中国产出缺口的估计(1985-2009)及两种评估方法的比较 [China's output gap estimates (1985-2009) and comparison of the two estimation methods]," MPRA Paper 38785, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38785
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    2. Simon van Norden, 1995. "Why Is It So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap?," Macroeconomics 9506001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank, 2003. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1611-1638, July.
    4. David T. Coe & C. John McDermott, 1997. "Does the Gap Model Work in Asia?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 59-80, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Potential output; output gap; the production function method; Van Norden method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General

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