[China's output gap estimates (1985-2009) and comparison of the two estimation methods]
In this paper, we used the production function method and the Van Norden method to estimate China's output gap (and potential output) from 1985 to 2009 year,and comparise the two methods. The results showed that: (1) the results of different methods are basically consistent with our economic situation. (2) Chinese economic stability enhanced after the emergence of sharp fluctuations, so development of domestic demand is the only way to stabilize the economy. (3) the results estimated by the Van Norden are more sensitive than PF method's . (4) From 2000, the potential output of China has increased.
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- Michael Ehrmann and Frank Smets, 2001.
"Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2001
8, Society for Computational Economics.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank, 2003. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1611-1638, July.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank, 2001. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0059, European Central Bank.
- Ehrmann, M. & Smets, F., 2001. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy," Papers 59, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- Simon van Norden, 1995. "Why Is It So Hard to Measure the Current Output Gap?," Macroeconomics 9506001, EconWPA.
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