IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/38287.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Communication of uncertainty in weather forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Marimo, Pricilla
  • Kaplan, Todd R
  • Mylne, Ken
  • Sharpe, Martin

Abstract

Experimental economics methods were used to assess public understanding of information in weather forecasts and test whether the participants were able to make better decisions using the probabilistic information presented in table or bar graph formats than if they are presented with a deterministic forecast. We asked undergraduate students from the University of Exeter to choose the most probable temperature outcome between a set of “lotteries” based on the temperature up to five days ahead. If they choose a true statement, participants were rewarded with a cash reward. Results indicate that on average participants provided with uncertainty information make better decisions than those without. Statistical analysis indicates a possible learning effect as the experiment progressed. Furthermore, participants who were shown the graph with uncertainty information took on average less response time compared to those who were shown a table with uncertainty information.

Suggested Citation

  • Marimo, Pricilla & Kaplan, Todd R & Mylne, Ken & Sharpe, Martin, 2012. "Communication of uncertainty in weather forecasts," MPRA Paper 38287, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38287
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38287/1/MPRA_paper_38287.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Winett, Richard A & Kagel, John H, 1984. "Effects of Information Presentation Format on Resource Use in Field Studies," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 11(2), pages 655-667, September.
    2. Cardinaels, Eddy, 2008. "The interplay between cost accounting knowledge and presentation formats in cost-based decision-making," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 582-602, August.
    3. Iris Vessey & Dennis Galletta, 1991. "Cognitive Fit: An Empirical Study of Information Acquisition," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 63-84, March.
    4. Edward J. Lusk & Michael Kersnick, 1979. "The Effect of Cognitive Style and Report Format on Task Performance: The MIS Design Consequences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(8), pages 787-798, August.
    5. William Remus, 1984. "An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of Graphical and Tabular Data Presentations on Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 533-542, May.
    6. Izak Benbasat & Albert S. Dexter, 1985. "An Experimental Evaluation of Graphical and Color-Enhanced Information Presentation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(11), pages 1348-1364, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:wrk:wrkemf:30 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell & Johnny Runge, 2019. "Communicating Data Uncertainty: Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2019-20, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johannes Gettinger & Sabine T. Koeszegi, 2014. "Far from Eye, Far from Heart: Analysis of Graphical Decision Aids in Electronic Negotiation Support," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 787-817, July.
    2. Dilla, William N. & Raschke, Robyn L., 2015. "Data visualization for fraud detection: Practice implications and a call for future research," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 1-22.
    3. Alex Richardson & Shirley Gregor & Richard Heaney, 2012. "Using decision support to manage the influence of cognitive abilities on share trading performance," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 37(3), pages 523-541, December.
    4. Kai H. Lim & Izak Benbasat & Lawrence M. Ward, 2000. "The Role of Multimedia in Changing First Impression Bias," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 11(2), pages 115-136, June.
    5. Rim Lassoued & Hayley Hesseln & Peter W. B. Phillips & Stuart J. Smyth, 2020. "Effects of information presentation on regulatory decisions for products of biotechnology," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 8(3), pages 151-175, November.
    6. Gerrit H. van Bruggen & Ale Smidts & Berend Wierenga, 1998. "Improving Decision Making by Means of a Marketing Decision Support System," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(5), pages 645-658, May.
    7. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
    8. Reimers, Stian & Harvey, Nigel, 2024. "Bars, lines and points: The effect of graph format on judgmental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 44-61.
    9. Rajiv D. Banker & Robert J. Kauffman, 2004. "50th Anniversary Article: The Evolution of Research on Information Systems: A Fiftieth-Year Survey of the Literature in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 281-298, March.
    10. Yigitbasioglu, Ogan M. & Velcu, Oana, 2012. "A review of dashboards in performance management: Implications for design and research," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 41-59.
    11. Hall, Matthew, 2010. "Accounting information and managerial work," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28539, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Sulin Ba & Jan Stallaert & Andrew B. Whinston, 2001. "Research Commentary: Introducing a Third Dimension in Information Systems Design—The Case for Incentive Alignment," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 12(3), pages 225-239, September.
    13. Pollock, Neil & D’Adderio, Luciana, 2012. "Give me a two-by-two matrix and I will create the market: Rankings, graphic visualisations and sociomateriality," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 565-586.
    14. Parsons, Linda M. & Tinkelman, Daniel, 2013. "Testing the feasibility of small multiples of sparklines to display semimonthly income statement data," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 58-76.
    15. Bergeron, François & Raymond, Louis & Rivard, Suzanne, 2001. "Fit in strategic information technology management research: an empirical comparison of perspectives," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 125-142, April.
    16. Norbert Koppenhagen & Benjamin Mueller & Alexander Maedche & Ye Li & Stephanie Hiller, 2016. "Designing a supply network artifact for data, process, and people integration," Information Systems and e-Business Management, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 613-636, August.
    17. Laitinen, Erkki K., 2014. "Influence of cost accounting change on performance of manufacturing firms," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 230-240.
    18. Geoffrey J. Syme & Blair E. Nancarrow & Clive Seligman, 2000. "The Evaluation of Information Campaigns to Promote Voluntary Household Water Conservation," Evaluation Review, , vol. 24(6), pages 539-578, December.
    19. Hall, Matthew, 2010. "Accounting information and managerial work," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 301-315, April.
    20. Tim Schröder & Lars-Peter Lauven & Beatriz Beyer & Nils Lerche & Jutta Geldermann, 2019. "Using PROMETHEE to assess bioenergy pathways," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(2), pages 287-309, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    experimental economics; uncertainty; decision making; bar graph; table;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38287. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.