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Empirical estimation of default and asset correlation of large corporates and banks in India

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  • Bandyopadhyay, Arindam
  • Ganguly, Sonali

Abstract

Estimation of default and asset correlation is crucial for banks to manage and measure portfolio credit risk. This would require studying the risk profile of the banks’ entire credit portfolio and developing the appropriate methodology for the estimation of default dependence. Measurement and management of correlation risk in the credit portfolio of banks has also become an important area of concern for bank regulators worldwide. The BCBS (2006) has specifically included an asset correlation factor in the computation of credit risk capital requirement by banks adopting the Internal Ratings Based Approach. We estimate default correlation in the credit portfolio of banks. These correlation estimates will help the regulator in India to understand the linkage between bank’s portfolio default risks with the systematic factors. We also derive default and asset correlations of Indian corporate and compare it with global scenario. The work tries to find the relationship of the correlation to the default probability as specified by the Basel committee. The findings of this paper could be used further in estimating portfolio credit risk, economic capital and risk adjusted returns on economic capital for large corporate exposures of banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Bandyopadhyay, Arindam & Ganguly, Sonali, 2011. "Empirical estimation of default and asset correlation of large corporates and banks in India," MPRA Paper 33057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33057
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lopez, Jose A., 2004. "The empirical relationship between average asset correlation, firm probability of default, and asset size," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 265-283, April.
    2. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    3. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
    4. Arindam Bandyopadhyay & Tasneem Chherawala & Asish Saha, 2007. "Calibrating asset correlation for Indian corporate exposures: Implications for regulatory capital," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 8(4), pages 330-348, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richa Verma Bajaj, 2018. "Credit Risk Capital Estimation Under IRB Approach for Banks in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(2), pages 475-500, June.
    2. Pankaj Baag, 2014. "Predicting The Probability Of Default Using Asset Correlation Of A Loan Portfolio," Working papers 151, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default Correlation; Asset Correlation; Credit Portfolio Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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