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Teste de Modelos Estatísticos para a Estrutura a Termo no Brasil
[Test of Term Structure Models for Brazil]

Author

Listed:
  • Varga, Gyorgy

Abstract

We apply and test term structure fitting models like polynomial splines, flat forward and Nelson-Siegel to the Brazilian local term structure. They are models used all over the world by authorities and financial markets practitioners but less known locally. These models were tested with a large database with all of then presenting some specification problems. These results are similar to Bliss (1997) for US term structure and showed several limitations to the use of these models in the term structure fitting.

Suggested Citation

  • Varga, Gyorgy, 2009. "Teste de Modelos Estatísticos para a Estrutura a Termo no Brasil
    [Test of Term Structure Models for Brazil]
    ," MPRA Paper 20832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20832
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20832/1/MPRA_paper_20832.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shea, Gary S., 1984. "Pitfalls in Smoothing Interest Rate Term Structure Data: Equilibrium Models and Spline Approximations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(03), pages 253-269, September.
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    3. Shea, Gary S, 1985. " Interest Rate Term Structure Estimation with Exponential Splines: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 319-325, March.
    4. Nicola Anderson & John Sleath, 2001. "New estimates of the UK real and nominal yield curves," Bank of England working papers 126, Bank of England.
    5. Chambers, Donald R. & Carleton, Willard T. & Waldman, Donald W., 1984. "A New Approach to Estimation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(03), pages 233-252, September.
    6. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    7. McCulloch, J Huston, 1971. "Measuring the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 19-31, January.
    8. Júnior, Antonio Marcos Duarte & Werlang, Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa, 1996. "A Model to Estimate the Us Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 16(1), November.
    9. Almeida, Caio & Gomes, Romeu & Leite, André & Vicente, José, 2008. "Movimentos da Estrutura a Termo e Critérios de Minimização do Erro de Previsão em um Modelo Paramétrico Exponencial," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 62(4), December.
    10. Poletti Laurini, Márcio & Moura, Marcelo, 2010. "Constrained smoothing B-splines for the term structure of interest rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 339-350, April.
    11. Mark Fisher & Douglas Nychka & David Zervos, 1995. "Fitting the term structure of interest rates with smoothing splines," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. McCulloch, J Huston, 1975. "An Estimate of the Liquidity Premium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(1), pages 95-119, February.
    13. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joao Frois Caldeira & Guilherme Valle Moura & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2011. "Efficient Interest Ratecurve Estimation And Forecasting In Brazil," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 133, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Almeida, Caio & Gomes, Romeu & Leite, André & Vicente, José, 2008. "Movimentos da Estrutura a Termo e Critérios de Minimização do Erro de Previsão em um Modelo Paramétrico Exponencial," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 62(4), December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure models; monetary policy; interpolation;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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