Bootstrapping the economy -- a non-parametric method of generating consistent future scenarios
The fortune and the risk of a business venture depends on the future course of the economy. There is a strong demand for economic forecasts and scenarios that can be applied to planning and modeling. While there is an ongoing debate on modeling economic scenarios, the bootstrapping (or resampling) approach presented here has several advantages. As a non-parametric method, it directly relies on past market behaviors rather than debatable assumptions on models and parameters. Simultaneous dependencies between economic variables are automatically captured. Some aspects of the bootstrapping method require additional modeling: choice and ransformation of the economic variables, arbitrage-free consistency, heavy tails of distributions, serial dependence, trends and mean reversion. Results of a complete economic scenario generator are presented, tested and discussed.
|Date of creation:||30 Oct 2004|
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