Measuring Potential Output in a Resource-Dependent Developing Economy : The Case of Mauritania

This study offers an updated and contextualized estimation of Mauritania’s potential GDP for the period 2014-2024, using four complementary approaches : linear trend, band-pass filter, and production function. The findings indicate a steady increase in potential output, with annual growth rates ranging from 3.2% to 3.7%, which is comparatively lower than the averages observed in Sub Saharan Africa (4% - 6%) or other low-income countries (5% - 7%). This moderate potential growth reflects several structural limitations, including a strong dependence on the extractive sector, gaps in human capital, infrastructure deficits, and institutional fragilities. These findings carry significant implications for economic policy : the need to incorporate output gap analysis into monetary policy, prioritize investment in human capital and productive infrastructure, and accelerate economic diversification. Future research could enrich these results by integrating institutional variables, conducting a sectoral breakdown of potential output, and analyzing the effects of energy transition and regional integration on Mauritania’s long-term growth prospects.