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Cost overruns in Swedish infrastructure projects

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  • Eliasson, Jonas

Abstract

This paper explores the accuracy of cost estimates at different planning stages for Swedish transport infrastructure projects 2004-2022. Changes in project costs are tracked between the national investment plans established in 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022. Cost estimates tend to increase considerably during the planning stages on average, while cost estimates at start of construction do not deviate systematically from final costs. The distributions of cost escalations between subsequent investment plans are highly skewed, with modes close to zero, but means in the order of 20-30 percent for projects in the planning stages. Average cost escalations are larger for rail projects than for road projects. The paper also briefly describes the Swedish infrastructure planning and decision process, summarizes previous Swedish studies, and discusses possible causes and remedies of cost overruns.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliasson, Jonas, 2023. "Cost overruns in Swedish infrastructure projects," MPRA Paper 120340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:120340
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/120340/1/MPRA_paper_120340.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans Lind & Fredrik Brunes, 2015. "Explaining cost overruns in infrastructure projects: a new framework with applications to Sweden," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 554-568, July.
    2. Nilsson, Jan-Eric, 2022. "The Weak Spot of Infrastructure BCA: Cost Overruns in Seven Road and Railway Construction Projects," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 224-246, July.
    3. Morten Welde & James Odeck, 2017. "Cost escalations in the front-end of projects – empirical evidence from Norwegian road projects," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 612-630, September.
    4. Lundberg, Mattias & Jenpanitsub, Anchalee & Pyddoke, Roger, 2011. "Cost overruns in Swedish transport projects," Working papers in Transport Economics 2011:11, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
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    JEL classification:

    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

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