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The impact of the energy-induced EU recession on Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Kohnert, Dirk

Abstract

The EU is one of the three largest economies in the world. But its economy, which is still suffering from the cCOVID-19 pandemic and the negative effects of the Russian war in Ukraine, faces a bleak outlook. Inflation, or even stagflation, is a major concern as it reflects cost pressures from disrupted supply chains and tight labor markets. The war in Ukraine could also lead to a sustained stop in European gas supplies from Russia. Fitch Ratings therefore forecast the likelihood of a technical recession in the euro zone due to ongoing gas rationing. Apparently the EU is at the mercy of two unpredictable powers, Putin and the weather. China is also affected by global imbalances, and when China coughs, Europe catches the flu. However, the risks are greatest in sub-Saharan Africa. Its global growth spillovers come mainly from the EU and the BRICS countries. In addition to its strong demographic growth, the continent is already suffering from climate change, including prolonged droughts, and political destabilization, particularly in the Sahel, Horn of Africa and East Africa. The two major African powers, Nigeria and South Africa, are currently going through major socioeconomic crises. Many sub-Saharan African countries are heavily dependent on energy and food imports, particularly wheat from Russia and Ukraine. For the approximately 30 million African poor, this means an increase in inequality. A recession in Europe would amplify external pressures and growth challenges. In addition, the emerging sub-Saharan markets bear the greatest export risk to the EU. The debt problem is also looming again, because lower global commodity prices slowed down economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Kohnert, Dirk, 2022. "The impact of the energy-induced EU recession on Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 114051, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:114051
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/114051/1/MPRA_paper_114051.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kohnert, Dirk, 2021. "The EU-Africa summit 2021 : Quo vadis, in the light of Brexit and Corona," AfricArxiv wqxd6, Center for Open Science.
    2. Kohnert, Dirk, 2021. "On the socio-economic impact of pandemics in Africa: Lessons learned from COVID-19, Trypanosomiasis, HIV, Yellow Fever and Cholera," MPRA Paper 107561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. M. B. Rapanyane & F. R. Sethole, 2020. "The rise of artificial intelligence and robots in the 4th Industrial Revolution: implications for future South African job creation," Contemporary Social Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 489-501, October.
    4. Kohnert, Dirk, 2019. "The ethics of African regional and continental integration," MPRA Paper 95562, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kohnert, Dirk, 2021. "The impact of digitalization on poverty alleviation in Africa," MPRA Paper 110269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kohnert, Dirk, 2004. "Are Non-state Actors Better Innovators? The Ambiguous Role of Non-state Actors in the Transition Process: The Case of Benin and Madagascar," MPRA Paper 977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kohnert, Dirk, 2024. "Perspektiven und Herausforderungen für EU-Importe seltener Erden aus Russland: Fallstudien aus Deutschland, Frankreich und Italien [Prospects and challenges for EU rare earth imports from Russia: T," MPRA Paper 120033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kohnert, Dirk, 2024. "The impact of the industrialized nation’s CO2 emissions on climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa: Case studies from South Africa, Nigeria and the DR Congo," MPRA Paper 120212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kohnert, Dirk, 2024. "Perspectives et défis pour les importations européennes de terres rares en provenance de Russie : études de cas d'Allemagne, de France et d'Italie [Prospects and challenges for EU rare earth import," MPRA Paper 119984, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kohnert, Dirk, 2024. "L’impact des émissions de CO2 des pays industrialisés sur le changement climatique en Afrique subsaharienne: Études de cas d’Afrique du Sud, du Nigeria et de la RD Congo [The impact of the industri," MPRA Paper 120231, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kohnert, Dirk, 2024. "Auswirkungen der CO2-Emissionen der Industrienationen auf den Klimawandel in Subsahara-Afrika: Fallstudien aus Südafrika, Nigeria und der DR Kongo [The impact of the industrialized nation's CO2 emi," MPRA Paper 120252, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU; recession; Russo-Ukrainian War; COVID-19 pandemic in Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; economic development; human development; informal sector; poverty; famine; international trade; food crises; global power; fragile states; Nigeria; South Africa; Postcolonialism; African Studies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F54 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Colonialism; Imperialism; Postcolonialism
    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania
    • N47 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Africa; Oceania
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • P26 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Property Rights
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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