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Análisis sobre la incidencia de la deuda pública en el crecimiento económico de Ecuador durante el periodo 1990-2019
[Analysis of the incidence of public debt on the economic growth of Ecuador during the period 1990-2019]

Author

Listed:
  • Jimenez, Ivett
  • Alvarado, Rafael

Abstract

El presente estudio tiene como objetivo evaluar el impacto de la deuda pública sobre el crecimiento económico de Ecuador. Tomando en cuenta que la literatura en su mayoría demuestra que el excesivo endeudamiento público compromete el desempeño económico de los países en el largo plazo, por ello se aporta con evidencia actualizada sobre este tema. Con base a esto se utiliza econometría de series de tiempo implementando modelos de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios (MCO), un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR) y técnicas de cointegración y causalidad. Los hallazgos empíricos establecen que el incremento de deuda pública está asociado con una reducción del crecimiento económico en el largo plazo. Además, se determina relación de cointegración entre las variables del estudio. Finalmente, se reconoce causalidad unidireccional que va del PIB per cápita hacia la deuda púbica. La implicación de política va encaminada a que el Estado fortalezca la calidad institucional del sector público para garantizar una administración e inversión eficiente de los recursos obtenidos mediante deuda, para reducir los niveles de endeudamiento y evitar una ralentización económica en el país.

Suggested Citation

  • Jimenez, Ivett & Alvarado, Rafael, 2022. "Análisis sobre la incidencia de la deuda pública en el crecimiento económico de Ecuador durante el periodo 1990-2019 [Analysis of the incidence of public debt on the economic growth of Ecuador duri," MPRA Paper 113666, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:113666
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2019. "Growth in the shadow of debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 98-112.
    2. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    4. Vaca, Jesús & Vaca Medina, Gustavo & Mora Pérez, César Omar, 2020. "El impacto de la deuda pública en el crecimiento económico: un estudio empírico de México (1994-2016)," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crecimiento económico; Deuda pública; Series de tiempo; Cointegración;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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