Do smart cities grow faster?
Previous studies have found a strong positive correlation between human capital, measured as the share of the adult population with a college degree, and population growth in metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) in the U.S. In this paper, I corroborate that the human capital-growth connection is indeed statistically significant, although much weaker than previously thought. The evidence suggests that the main reason behind this bias lies on endogeneity issues that have not been thoroughly addressed in the literature. In particular, omitting lagged MSA growth in regressions of current MSA growth on human capital overestimates the impact of skills by 100 per cent. Given that past growth has been shown to be one of the main drivers of current MSA growth (Glaeser 1994a), omitting the former variable in growth-education regressions would bias our human capital estimates upwards. Upon further examination, however, I show that MSA-specific fixed effects explain away the alleged impact of past on current growth. This suggests that the individual characteristics of the city that made it grew in the first place, and not lagged MSA growth per se, are what drives future MSA growth. Yet, even after accounting for these MSA-specific fixed effects, the impact of human capital on MSA growth does not disappear: my estimates suggest that a decadal increase of 10 per cent in the share of the adult population with a college degree translates into a rise of between 3 and up to 5 per cent in the MSA population growth rate during the same period. Finally, instrumental variable regressions strongly support the direction from skills to growth, abating potential reverse causality concerns.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Edward L. Glaeser, Jed Kolko, and Albert Saiz, 2001.
Journal of Economic Geography,
Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 27-50, January.
- Ed Glaeser & Jed Kolko & Albert Saiz, 2000. "Consumer City," NBER Working Papers 7790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Jed Kolko & Albert Saiz, 2000. "Consumer City," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1901, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Jesse M. Shapiro, 2006.
"Smart Cities: Quality of Life, Productivity, and the Growth Effects of Human Capital,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 324-335, May.
- Jesse M. Shapiro, 2005. "Smart Cities: Quality of Life, Productivity, and the Growth Effects of Human Capital," NBER Working Papers 11615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-1278, December.
- Moretti, Enrico, 2004. "Estimating the social return to higher education: evidence from longitudinal and repeated cross-sectional data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1-2), pages 175-212.
- Enrico Moretti, 2002. "Estimating the Social Return to Higher Education: Evidence From Longitudinal and Repeated Cross-Sectional Data," NBER Working Papers 9108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glaeser, Edward L., 1994. "Why does schooling generate economic growth?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 333-337.
- repec:hoo:wpaper:e-95-4 is not listed on IDEAS
- Edward L. Glaeser & Albert Saiz, 2003. "The rise of the skilled city," Working Papers 04-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Albert Saiz, 2003. "The Rise of the Skilled City," NBER Working Papers 10191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Albert Saiz, 2003. "The Rise of the Skilled City," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2025, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
- Simon, Curtis J. & Nardinelli, Clark, 2002. "Human capital and the rise of American cities, 1900-1990," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 59-96, January.
- Simon, Curtis J., 1998. "Human Capital and Metropolitan Employment Growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 223-243, March.
- Glaeser, Edward L. & Scheinkman, JoseA. & Shleifer, Andrei, 1995. "Economic growth in a cross-section of cities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 117-143, August.
- Glaeser, E.L. & Scheinkman, J.A., 1993. "Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1645, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1995. "Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities," NBER Working Papers 5013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- R. Jason Faberman, 2005. "What’s In a City?: Understanding the Micro-Level Employer Dynamics Underlying Urban Growth," Working Papers 386, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10881. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.