IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Forecasting stochastic Volatility using the Kalman filter: An Application to Canadian Interest Rates and Price-Earnings Ratio

  • Francois-Éric Racicot

    ()

    (Département des sciences administratives, Université du Québec (Outaouais), LRSP et Chaire d'information financière et organisationnelle)

  • Raymond Théoret

    ()

    (Département de finance, Université du Québec (Montréal), Université du Québec (Outaouais), et Chaire d'information financière et organisationnelle)

In this paper, we aim at forecasting the stochastic volatility of key financial market variables with the Kalman filter using stochastic models developed by Taylor (1986, 1994) and Nelson (1990). First, we compare a stochastic volatility model relying on the Kalman filter to the conditional volatility estimated with the GARCH model. We apply our models to Canadian short-term interest rates. When comparing the profile of the interest rate stochastic volatility to the conditional one, we find that the omission of a constant term in the stochastic volatility model might have a perverse effect leading to a scaling problem, a problem often overlooked in the literature. Stochastic volatility seems to be a better forecasting tool than GARCH(1,1) since it is less conditioned by autoregressive past information. Second, we filter the S&P500 price-earnings (P/E) ratio in order to forecast its value. To make this forecast, we postulate a rational expectations process but our method may accommodate other data generating processes. We find that our forecast is close to a GARCH(1,1) profile.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.repad.org/ca/qc/uq/uqo/dsa/forecasting.pdf
File Function: First version, 2011
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Département des sciences administratives, UQO in its series RePAd Working Paper Series with number UQO-DSA-wp032011.

as
in new window

Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 12 Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pqs:wpaper:032011
Contact details of provider: Postal: Pavillon Lucien Brault, 101 rue Saint Jean-Bosco, Gatineau (Québec) J8Y 3G5
Phone: (819) 595-3900
Fax: (819) 773-1747
Web page: http://www.repad.org/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2009. "Stochastic volatility," Working Paper Series WP-09-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Daniel B. Nelson & Dean P. Foster, 1994. "Asypmtotic Filtering Theory for Univariate Arch Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2005. "Volatility forecasting," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  4. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  5. Fornari, Fabio & Mele, Antonio, 2006. "Approximating volatility diffusions with CEV-ARCH models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 931-966, June.
  6. François-Éric Racicot & Raymond Théoret, 2010. "Hedge Fund Returns, Kalman Filter, and Errors-in-Variables," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(3), pages 377-378, September.
  7. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "ARCH models as diffusion approximations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 7-38.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pqs:wpaper:032011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Calmes)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.