We propose a model of history dependent disappointment aversion (HDDA), allowing the attitude of a decision-maker (DM) towards disappointment at each stage of a T-stage lottery to evolve as a function of his history of disappointments and elations in prior stages. We establish an equivalence between the existence of an HDDA representation and two documented cognitive biases. First, the DM overreacts to news: after suffering a disappointment, the DM lowers his threshold for elation and becomes more risk averse; similarly, after an elating outcome, the DM raises his threshold for elation and becomes less risk averse. This makes disappointment more likely after elation and vice-versa, leading to statistically cycling risk attitudes. Second, the DM displays a primacy effect: early outcomes have the strongest effect on risk attitude. “Gray areas” in the elation-disappointment assignment are connected to optimism and pessimism in determining endogenous reference points.
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- Bellemare, Charles & Krause, Michaela & Kroger, Sabine & Zhang, Chendi, 2005.
"Myopic loss aversion: Information feedback vs. investment flexibility,"
Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 319-324, June.
- Bellemare, C. & Krause, M. & Kroger, S. & Zhang, C., 2004. "Myopic Loss Aversion : Information Feedback vs. Investment Flexibility," Discussion Paper 2004-32, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Segal, Uzi, 1990. "Two-Stage Lotteries without the Reduction Axiom," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 349-377, March.
- Thierry Post & Martijn J. van den Assem & Guido Baltussen & Richard H. Thaler, 2008. "Deal or No Deal? Decision Making under Risk in a Large-Payoff Game Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 38-71, March.
- Kareen Rozen, 2010. "Foundations of Intrinsic Habit Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(4), pages 1341-1373, 07.
- Kareen Rozen, 2008. "Foundations of Intrinsic Habit Formation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1642, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Rozen, Kareen, 2008. "Foundations of Intrinsic Habit Formation," Working Papers 40, Yale University, Department of Economics.
- Kareen Rozen, 2008. "Foundations of Intrinsic Habit Formation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1642R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2009.
- Kareen Rozen, 2008. "Foundations of Intrinsic Habit Formation," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002062, David K. Levine.
- repec:dgr:kubcen:200432 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-686, May.
- Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2001. "Psychological Expected Utility Theory and Anticipatory Feelings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 55-79. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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