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Projections of Chinese Energy Demands in 2020

Author

Listed:
  • F. Gerard Adams

    () (College of Business Administration, Northeastern University)

  • Yochanan Shachmurove

    () (Department of Economics, City University of New York and Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

As current trends of Chinese economic growth and motorization continue, its demand for higher efficiency fuels (oil, gas, and electric power) will increase. This, coupled with China’s limited domestic production, can translate into a massive demand for energy imports. To predict China’s energy demand into 2020, an econometric model of the Chinese energy economy is constructed based on its energy balance. This paper suggests that China’s increase demand for energy imports will be most sensitive to increases in motorization rather than economic growth. It can be partially offset by increasing domestic energy production or energy efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • F. Gerard Adams & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2007. "Projections of Chinese Energy Demands in 2020," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-012, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:07-012
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    Keywords

    China; Energy; Energy Demand; Petroleum and Coal; World Energy Markets; Motorization; Energy Efficiency;

    JEL classification:

    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • L9 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities
    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P28 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Natural Resources; Environment

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