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Projections of Chinese Energy Demands in 2020

  • F. Gerard Adams


    (College of Business Administration, Northeastern University)

  • Yochanan Shachmurove


    (Department of Economics, City University of New York and Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

As current trends of Chinese economic growth and motorization continue, its demand for higher efficiency fuels (oil, gas, and electric power) will increase. This, coupled with China’s limited domestic production, can translate into a massive demand for energy imports. To predict China’s energy demand into 2020, an econometric model of the Chinese energy economy is constructed based on its energy balance. This paper suggests that China’s increase demand for energy imports will be most sensitive to increases in motorization rather than economic growth. It can be partially offset by increasing domestic energy production or energy efficiency.

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Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 07-012.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:07-012
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