IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/y3nsa.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Governance in Crisis: Institutionalizing Reflective Report to Guide Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Starominski-Uehara, Marvin

Abstract

This paper proposes a communication method to improve decision and policymaking under uncertain scenarios. The motivation for elaborating such a method is the absence of clarity, prioritization criteria and critical thinking in considerations made by the Brazilian federal government during the ongoing response to the epidemic of COVID-19 in the country. The expectation is that the implementation of this method would help national leaders more easily assess the significance of evidence-based practices and anecdata to the decisions they are urged to make under significant time and resource constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Starominski-Uehara, Marvin, 2020. "Governance in Crisis: Institutionalizing Reflective Report to Guide Decision Making Under Uncertainty," SocArXiv y3nsa, Center for Open Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:y3nsa
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/y3nsa
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/5e953414d6973503f8bdf413/
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/y3nsa?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Saltelli & Mario Giampietro, 2015. "The fallacy of evidence based policy," Papers 1607.07398, arXiv.org.
    2. Tom Willems & Wouter Van Dooren, 2016. "(De)Politicization Dynamics in Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs): Lessons from a comparison between UK and Flemish PPP policy," Public Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 199-220, February.
    3. Peter D. Lunn & Cameron A. Belton & Ciarán Lavin & Féidhlim P. McGowan & Shane Timmons & Deirdre A. Robertson, 2020. "Using behavioral science to help fight the Coronavirus," Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, Center for Experimental and Behavioral Public Administration, vol. 3(1).
    4. Joshua Newman & Adrian Cherney & Brian W. Head, 2017. "Policy capacity and evidence-based policy in the public service," Public Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 157-174, February.
    5. Wright, George & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 813-825, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meissner, Philip & Brands, Christian & Wulf, Torsten, 2017. "Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment into the scenario development process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 244-253.
    2. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter, 2016. "Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 97-108.
    3. Derbyshire, James, 2017. "Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 77-87.
    4. Kovac Mitja & Elkanawati Amira & Gjikolli Vita & Vandenberghe Ann-Sophie, 2020. "The Covid-19 pandemic: collective action and European public policy under stress," Central European Journal of Public Policy, Sciendo, vol. 14(2), pages 47-59, December.
    5. Kunc, Martin & O'Brien, Frances A., 2017. "Exploring the development of a methodology for scenario use: Combining scenario and resource mapping approaches," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 150-159.
    6. James Derbyshire, 2020. "Answers to questions on uncertainty in geography: Old lessons and new scenario tools," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(4), pages 710-727, June.
    7. Dónal Palcic & Eoin Reeves & Anne Stafford, 2018. "Lifting the Lid: the Private Financing of Motorway PPPs in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(2), pages 217-239.
    8. Costa-Font, Joan & Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina, 2023. "Health System Trust and Compliance with COVID-19 Restrictions," IZA Discussion Papers 15961, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Arbrie Jashari & Victor Tiberius & Marina Dabić, 2022. "Tracing the progress of scenario research in business and management," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), June.
    10. Lunn, Peter D. & Timmons, Shane & Belton, Cameron A. & Barjaková, Martina & Julienne, Hannah & Lavin, Ciarán, 2020. "Motivating social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic: An online experiment," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    11. Klenk, Nicole L. & Hickey, Gordon M., 2011. "A virtual and anonymous, deliberative and analytic participation process for planning and evaluation: The Concept Mapping Policy Delphi," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 152-165, January.
    12. Ram, Camelia, 2020. "Scenario presentation and scenario generation in multi-criteria assessments: An exploratory study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    13. Ralf Elbert & Lowis Seikowsky, 2017. "The influences of behavioral biases, barriers and facilitators on the willingness of forwarders’ decision makers to modal shift from unimodal road freight transport to intermodal road–rail freight tra," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 87(8), pages 1083-1123, November.
    14. Lunn, Pete & Timmons, Shane & Julienne, Hannah & Belton, Cameron & Barjaková, Martina & Lavin, Ciarán & McGowan, Féidhlim, 2020. "Using decision aids to support self-isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Papers WP664, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Joshua Newman & Emi Patmisari & Ida Widianingsih, 2022. "Policy analytical capacity and "Eastern" styles of policy analysis: evidence from West Java Province, Indonesia," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 55(3), pages 469-485, September.
    16. Yue Wang & Honggen Zhu & Noshaba Aziz & Yu Liu, 2023. "Does Social Capital Improve the Effectiveness of Public Service? An Insight from Rural-to-Urban Migrants in China," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 165(2), pages 431-452, January.
    17. Shuguang Jiang & Qian Wei & Luyao Zhang, 2022. "Individualism Versus Collectivism and the Early-Stage Transmission of COVID-19," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(2), pages 791-821, November.
    18. Shari De Baets & Dilek Önkal & Wasim Ahmed, 2022. "Do Risky Scenarios Affect Forecasts of Savings and Expenses?," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-28, February.
    19. Hou, Yunxiang & Lu, Yikang & Dong, Yuting & Jin, Libin & Shi, Lei, 2023. "Impact of different social attitudes on epidemic spreading in activity-driven networks," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 446(C).
    20. Chen, Kaihua & Ren, Zhipeng & Mu, Shijun & Sun, Tara Qian & Mu, Rongping, 2020. "Integrating the Delphi survey into scenario planning for China's renewable energy development strategy towards 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:y3nsa. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.