IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/kxmw7_v1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can a COVID-19 Vaccine Live up to Americans’ Expectations? A Conjoint Analysis of how Vaccine Characteristics Influence Vaccination Intentions

Author

Listed:
  • Motta, Matt

    (Boston University School of Public Health)

Abstract

Objective: A vaccine for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) could prove critical in establishing herd immunity. While past work has documented the prevalence and correlates of vaccine refusal, I assess how a less explored topic -- properties of vaccines themselves (e.g., national origin, efficacy, risk of side effects) -- might influence vaccination intentions. This information can help public health officials preempt differential vaccine demand, and inform health communication campaigns that encourage vaccine uptake. Rationale: Previous research suggests that Americans should be more likely to intend to vaccinate if presented with a US-made vaccine that carries a low risk of minor side effects, is highly effective, is administered in just one dose, and has spent significant time in development. Methods: I administered a conjoint experiment (N = 5,940 trials) in a demographically representative survey (N = 990) of US adults to assess how variation in vaccine properties influence self-reported public vaccination intentions. Results: I find that respondents prefer vaccines that are US-made, over 90% effective, and carry a less than 1% risk of minor side effects. This is potentially problematic, as some leading vaccine candidates are produced outside the US, and may be less effective and more likely to produce minor side effects than respondents would otherwise prefer. Worryingly, intended vaccine refusal rates exceed 30% for a vaccine meeting these optimal characteristics. Encouragingly, though, Americans show no clear preference for vaccines administered in one dose, or developed in under a year, and do not appear to draw a distinction between weakened viral vs. mRNA-based vaccines. Conclusion: Americans’ preferences for a novel coronavirus vaccine may be at odds with the vaccine that ultimately hits the market, posing both policy and health communication challenges for vaccination uptake.

Suggested Citation

  • Motta, Matt, 2020. "Can a COVID-19 Vaccine Live up to Americans’ Expectations? A Conjoint Analysis of how Vaccine Characteristics Influence Vaccination Intentions," SocArXiv kxmw7_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:kxmw7_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/kxmw7_v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/5f466641d4c60300501fde0e/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/kxmw7_v1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ewen Callaway, 2020. "The race for coronavirus vaccines: a graphical guide," Nature, Nature, vol. 580(7805), pages 576-577, April.
    2. Hainmueller, Jens & Hopkins, Daniel J. & Yamamoto, Teppei, 2014. "Causal Inference in Conjoint Analysis: Understanding Multidimensional Choices via Stated Preference Experiments," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 1-30, January.
    3. Yaqub, Ohid & Castle-Clarke, Sophie & Sevdalis, Nick & Chataway, Joanna, 2014. "Attitudes to vaccination: A critical review," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-11.
    4. Nelson, J.C. & Bittner, R.C.L. & Bounds, L. & Zhao, S. & Baggs, J. & Donahue, J.G. & Hambidge, S.J. & Jacobsen, S.J. & Klein, N.P. & Naleway, A.L. & Zangwill, K.M. & Jackson, L.A., 2009. "Compliance with multiple-dose vaccine schedules among older children, adolescents, and adults: Results from a vaccine safety datalink study," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 99(S2), pages 389-397.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Motta, Matt, 2021. "Can a COVID-19 vaccine live up to Americans’ expectations? A conjoint analysis of how vaccine characteristics influence vaccination intentions," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    2. Motta, Matthew, 2020. "Can a COVID-19 Vaccine Live up to Americans’ Expectations? A Conjoint Analysis of how Vaccine Characteristics Influence Vaccination Intentions," SocArXiv kxmw7, Center for Open Science.
    3. Barceló, Joan & Sheen, Greg Chih-Hsin & Tung, Hans H. & Wu, Wen-Chin, 2022. "Vaccine nationalism among the public: A cross-country experimental evidence of own-country bias towards COVID-19 vaccination," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    4. Lisanne de Blok & Max Heermann & Julian Schuessler & Dirk Leuffen & Catherine E. de Vries, 2024. "All on board? The role of institutional design for public support for differentiated integration," European Union Politics, , vol. 25(3), pages 593-604, September.
    5. Chaikaew, Pasicha & Hodges, Alan W. & Grunwald, Sabine, 2017. "Estimating the value of ecosystem services in a mixed-use watershed: A choice experiment approach," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 228-237.
    6. Philipp Wassler & Giacomo Del Chiappa & Thi Hong Hai Nguyen & Giancarlo Fedeli & Nigel L. Williams, 2022. "Increasing vaccination intention in pandemic times: a social marketing perspective," Italian Journal of Marketing, Springer, vol. 2022(1), pages 37-58, March.
    7. Joana Mendonça & Ana Patrícia Hilário, 2023. "Healthism vis-à-vis Vaccine Hesitancy: Insights from Parents Who Either Delay or Refuse Children’s Vaccination in Portugal," Societies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-15, August.
    8. Henrik Serup Christensen & Lauri Rapeli, 2021. "Immediate rewards or delayed gratification? A conjoint survey experiment of the public’s policy preferences," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 54(1), pages 63-94, March.
    9. Okada, Isamu, 2024. "What procedures matter to social acceptance of mining? A conjoint experiment in Peru," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    10. Wietzke, Frank-Borge, 2024. "Perceptions of social class in Africa. Results from a conjoint experiment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    11. Robert Kubinec, 2018. "Patrons or Clients? Measuring and Experimentally Evaluating Political Connections of Firms in Morocco and Jordan," Working Papers 1280, Economic Research Forum, revised 26 Dec 2018.
    12. E. Keith Smith & Dennis Kolcava & Thomas Bernauer, 2024. "Stringent sustainability regulations for global supply chains are supported across middle-income democracies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Vrânceanu, Alina & Dinas, Elias & Heidland, Tobias & Ruhs, Martin, 2023. "The European refugee crisis and public support for the externalisation of migration management," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 279441, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. repec:beo:swcetp:23-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Theiss Bendixen, 2020. "How cultural evolution can inform the science of science communication—and vice versa," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Athey, Susan & Karlan, Dean & Palikot, Emil & Yuan, Yuan, 2022. "Smiles in Profiles: Improving Fairness and Efficiency Using Estimates of User Preferences in Online Marketplaces," Research Papers 4071, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    17. Tukiainen, Janne & Blesse, Sebastian & Bohne, Albrecht & Giuffrida, Leonardo M. & Jääskeläinen, Jan & Luukinen, Ari & Sieppi, Antti, 2024. "What are the priorities of bureaucrats? Evidence from conjoint experiments with procurement officials," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    18. Tulsi Ram Aryal & Masaru Ichihashi & Shinji Kaneko, 2022. "How strong is demand for public transport service in Nepal? A case study of Kathmandu using a choice-based conjoint experiment," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    19. Sofia Amaral‐Garcia & Mattia Nardotto & Carol Propper & Tommaso Valletti, 2024. "Information and vaccine hesitancy: The role of broadband Internet," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(9), pages 1936-1948, September.
    20. Knoblauch, Theresa A.K. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Stauffacher, Michael, 2019. "Siting deep geothermal energy: Acceptance of various risk and benefit scenarios in a Swiss-German cross-national study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 807-816.
    21. Vincenzo Carrieri & Raffele Lagravinese & Giuliano Resce, 2021. "Predicting vaccine hesitancy from area‐level indicators: A machine learning approach," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(12), pages 3248-3256, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:kxmw7_v1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.