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Political Budget Cycles in Autocracies: The Role of Religious Seasons and Political Collective Action

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  • Mohamed, Ahmed Ezzeldin

    (Toulouse School of Economics)

Abstract

This article examines whether Ramadan is associated with expansionary fiscal policy in Egypt between 2006 and 2019. It finds that Ramadan is associated with modest increases in government expenditure and welfare spending, but this relationship depends on the level of political threats facing the regime. Spending is higher in Ramadan when preceded by more anti-regime collective action.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed, Ahmed Ezzeldin, 2026. "Political Budget Cycles in Autocracies: The Role of Religious Seasons and Political Collective Action," SocArXiv grzub_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:grzub_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/grzub_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    4. Scheve, Kenneth & Stasavage, David, 2006. "Religion and Preferences for Social Insurance," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 1(3), pages 255-286, July.
    5. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Popular protest and political budget cycles: A panel data analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 516-520.
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