Exceptional Architecture and Touristic Impact: A Synthetic Control Study of Hamburg’s Elbphilharmonie

Exceptional architecture is widely recognized for its seeming impact on the cultural and economic trajectories of cities. However, the specific attractive potential of any given project and thus its impact on the regional economy is often contentious, and identifying measurable increases for outcomes of interest, such as visitor numbers, is empirically challenging. This study investigates the causal effects of the Elbphilharmonie concert hall in Hamburg on local tourism development. Employing the synthetic control method, we create a counterfactual scenario to estimate how Hamburg’s tourism trajectory might have unfolded without the construction of the Elbphilharmonie. Contrasting recent debates highlighting the often underwhelming nature of 'star architecture', our findings indicate that the concert hall has had a major effect on tourism: In the seven and a half years from its opening in January 2017 to the second quarter of 2024, the Elbphilharmonie is estimated to be responsible for 13 million additional overnight stays, despite the period covering the covid pandemic.