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Is There Really a Dictator's Dilemma? Information and Repression in Autocracy

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  • Gehlbach, Scott
  • Luo, Zhaotian
  • Shirikov, Anton
  • Vorobyev, Dmitriy

Abstract

In his seminal work on the political economy of dictatorship, Ronald Wintrobe (1998) posited the existence of a "dictator's dilemma," in which repression leaves an autocrat less secure by reducing information about discontent. We explore the nature and resolution of this dilemma with a formalization that builds on recent work in the political economy of nondemocracy. When the regime is sufficiently repressive, and the dictator's popularity correspondingly unclear to opposition as well as autocrat, the ruler faces two unattractive options: he can mobilize the repressive apparatus, even though there may be no threat to his rule, or he can refrain from mobilizing, even though the threat may be real. Semicompetitive elections can ease the dilemma through the controlled revelation of discontent. Depending on the ease of building a repressive apparatus, autocrats who manage information in this way may prefer more or less repression than Wintrobe's dilemma alone implies.

Suggested Citation

  • Gehlbach, Scott & Luo, Zhaotian & Shirikov, Anton & Vorobyev, Dmitriy, 2024. "Is There Really a Dictator's Dilemma? Information and Repression in Autocracy," SocArXiv b94fc, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:b94fc
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/b94fc
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wintrobe,Ronald, 2000. "The Political Economy of Dictatorship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521794497.
    2. Sergei Guriev & Daniel Treisman, 2022. "Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03916510, HAL.
    3. Di Lonardo, Livio & Sun, Jessica S. & Tyson, Scott A., 2020. "Autocratic Stability in the Shadow of Foreign Threats," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1247-1265, November.
    4. Egorov, Georgy & Guriev, Sergei & Sonin, Konstantin, 2009. "Why Resource-poor Dictators Allow Freer Media: A Theory and Evidence from Panel Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(4), pages 645-668, November.
    5. Arturas Rozenas, 2020. "A Theory of Demographically Targeted Repression," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(7-8), pages 1254-1278, August.
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