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Who are the Election Skeptics? Evidence from the 2022 Midterm Elections

Author

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  • Grimmer, Justin
  • Holliday, Derek

    (Stanford University)

  • Lelkes, Yphtach
  • Westwood, Sean

Abstract

Faith in American elections is eroding, with politicians frequently questioning the legitimacy of election results and spreading misinformation about voter fraud. Substantial work has been done to refute misinformation and increase confidence in elections, but often without a clear picture of who skeptics are and why they are skeptical. Using extensive polling data from around the 2022 midterm election (N=5,244), we provide a comprehensive profile of election skeptics: their prevalence, views, and justification. We rely on a large nationally-representative survey and use a mix of quantitative and qualitative data. We find that while skepticism is widespread in the American electorate, its underpinnings are not necessarily deep-seated. Over half of skeptics claim they are skeptical because of how elections are run and nearly one-in-five skeptics claim they are skeptical because of the other party's performance in recent elections, which we corroborate through an event study of the 2022 election.

Suggested Citation

  • Grimmer, Justin & Holliday, Derek & Lelkes, Yphtach & Westwood, Sean, 2023. "Who are the Election Skeptics? Evidence from the 2022 Midterm Elections," OSF Preprints pe2zg, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:pe2zg
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/pe2zg
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Singh, Shane P. & Thornton, Judd R., 2019. "Elections Activate Partisanship across Countries," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(1), pages 248-253, February.
    2. Gordon Pennycook & David G. Rand, 2022. "Accuracy prompts are a replicable and generalizable approach for reducing the spread of misinformation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
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