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A Multiversal Model of Vibration of Effects of the Equitable and Sustainable Well-Being (BES) on Fertility

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  • Cantone, Giulio Giacomo
  • Tomaselli, Venera

Abstract

This study checks the hypothesis that sustainable well-being is a determinant factor of fertility through the application of a multiversal method based on the assumptions of Vibration of Effects (VoE) model of multiversal sampling on the Italian Equitable and Sustain- able Well-being (BES) dataset. For 48 social indicators of well-being, adopting the Province as statistical unit, the estimate of linear effect has been systematically sampled 1,024 times. This multiversal sampling allows to estimate the component of the hypothetical variability of the estimate of the effect size that depends on the theoretical choices of the analysis. This component is commonly underestimated, hidden, or ignored in regular multivariate analysis or classical bootstrapping. Results do not allow to claim that any of the 48 social indicators is a robust linear predictor of fertility. Indicators associated with high statistical significance are also at risk of misleading the causal relationship. Implications for policy-making and the future direction of the research on BES are discussed in the conclusive remarks.

Suggested Citation

  • Cantone, Giulio Giacomo & Tomaselli, Venera, 2023. "A Multiversal Model of Vibration of Effects of the Equitable and Sustainable Well-Being (BES) on Fertility," MetaArXiv z5msx, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:metaar:z5msx
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/z5msx
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    1. Nate Breznau & Eike Mark Rinke & Alexander Wuttke & Hung H. V. Nguyen & Muna Adem & Jule Adriaans & Amalia Alvarez-Benjumea & Henrik K. Andersen & Daniel Auer & Flavio Azevedo & Oke Bahnsen & Dave Bal, 2022. "Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 119(44), pages 2203150119-, November.
    2. Breznau, Nate & Rinke, Eike Mark & Wuttke, Alexander & Nguyen, Hung H. V. & Adem, Muna & Adriaans, Jule & Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia & Andersen, Henrik K. & Auer, Daniel & Azevedo, Flavio & Bahnsen, Oke, 2022. "Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 119(44), pages 1-8.
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