IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/stiaac/41-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The future of global value chains: Business as usual or “a new normal”?

Author

Listed:
  • Koen De Backer

    (OECD)

  • Dorothee Flaig

    (OECD)

Abstract

The rapid growth of global value chains (GVCs) has been an important driver of globalisation during the past decades. But the international fragmentation of production appears to have lost momentum and GVCs seem to have stalled in recent years. The world economy is facing a number of structural shifts that may dramatically change the outlook of GVCs in the coming years. The empirical evidence evaluating the potential impact of these shifts however largely lags behind, which makes these discussions somewhat speculative. By describing how these shifts will likely evolve over the next 10 to 15 years and calculating their effects on global production and trade, the scenarios in this paper offers new - empirically funded - insights on the future of GVCs.

Suggested Citation

  • Koen De Backer & Dorothee Flaig, 2017. "The future of global value chains: Business as usual or “a new normal”?," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers 41, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:stiaac:41-en
    DOI: 10.1787/d8da8760-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/d8da8760-en
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/d8da8760-en?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcato, Marilia Bassetti & Dweck, Esther & Montanha, Rafael, 2022. "The densification of Chinese production chains in the context of vertically fragmented production," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 75-89.
    2. Escaith, Hubert, 2018. "Mapping the UK domestic and global value chains from a Brexit perspective," MPRA Paper 87824, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Michael Böheim & Elisabeth Christen & Stefan Ederer & Matthias Firgo & Klaus S. Friesenbichler & Werner Hölzl & Mathias Kirchner & Angela Köppl & Agnes Kügler & Christine May, 2018. "Politischer Handlungsspielraum zur optimalen Nutzung der Vorteile der Digitalisierung für Wirtschaftswachstum, Beschäftigung und Wohlstand," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61256, April.
    4. Byeongho Lim & Jeongho Yoo & Kyoungseo Hong & Inkyo Cheong, 2021. "Impacts of Reverse Global Value Chain (GVC) Factors on Global Trade and Energy Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, June.
    5. McWilliam, Sarah E. & Kim, Jung Kwan & Mudambi, Ram & Nielsen, Bo Bernhard, 2020. "Global value chain governance: Intersections with international business," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(4).
    6. Filippo Bontadini & Rinaldo Evangelista & Valentina Meliciani & Maria Savona, 2019. "Integration in Global Value Chains and Employment in Europe," SPRU Working Paper Series 2019-16, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    7. Dachs, Bernhard & Kinkel, Steffen & Jäger, Angela, 2019. "Bringing it all back home? Backshoring of manufacturing activities and the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1-1.
    8. Escaith, Hubert, 2022. "From Hyper-globalization to Global Value Chains Decoupling: Withering Global Trade Governance?," MPRA Paper 115267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Blázquez, Leticia & Díaz-Mora, Carmen & González-Díaz, Belén, 2023. "Hubs of embodied business services in a GVC world," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 28-43.
    10. Dweck, Esther & Marcato, Marilia Bassetti & Torracca, Julia & Miguez, Thiago, 2022. "COVID-19 and the Brazilian manufacturing sector: Roads to reindustrialization within societal purposes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 278-293.
    11. Christian Estmann & Bjørn Bo Sørensen & Benno Ndulu & John Rand, 2022. "Merchandise export diversification strategy for Tanzania: Promoting inclusive growth, economic complexity and structural change," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2649-2695, August.
    12. Elena Spasova & Eduard Marinov, 2021. "Global value chains and the changing nature of international specialization," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 3-28,29-52.
    13. Michael Böheim & Elisabeth Christen & Matthias Firgo & Klaus S. Friesenbichler & Philipp Piribauer, 2018. "Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung auf die Entwicklung von Wirtschaftsräumen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 91(12), pages 881-890, December.
    14. Karishma Banga, 2022. "Digital Technologies and Product Upgrading in Global Value Chains: Empirical Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Firms," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(1), pages 77-102, February.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:stiaac:41-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/scoecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.