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Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness

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  • Dr. James Mitchell

Abstract

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. James Mitchell, 2008. "Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 320, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:320
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    Cited by:

    1. John W. Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2009. "Calibration and Resolution Diagnostics for Bank of England Density Forecasts," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-36, CIRANO.
    2. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Luiz Renato Lima, 2014. "Constructing Optimal Density Forecasts From Point Forecast Combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 736-757, August.
    3. Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 621-634.
    4. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2014. "Nowcasting GDP in Real Time: A Density Combination Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 48-68, January.
    5. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2011. "Evaluating density forecasts: a comment," MPRA Paper 31184, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009. "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0909, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    7. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2014. "How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 163-185, April.
    8. Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P Vahey, 2010. "Measuring Core Inflation in Australia with Disaggregate Ensembles," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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