IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nsb/bilten/25.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Analysis of the labour market and its impact on inflation in Serbia

Author

Listed:
  • Jelena Momcilovic and Mirjana Miletic
  • Jelena Momcilovic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

  • Mirjana Miletic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

Abstract

In this paper we showed how labour market factors are included in the macroeconomic model which the National Bank of Serbia uses for the medium-term inflation projection, thus enabling an insight into labour market trends, as well as an analysis of the link with other macroeconomic indicators, notably their effect on inflation. The estimates obtained by applying the Kalman filter indicate that NAIRU is still below the unemployment rate, suggesting a positive unemployment gap and showing that the labour market in Serbia is not exerting any major pressures on inflation. The paper also presents the results of testing the relevance of the hysteresis effect in the unemployment rate for Serbia. The hysteresis effect was confirmed by applying the unit root test and estimating the statistical significance of the stochastic trend in the NAIRU series.

Suggested Citation

  • Jelena Momcilovic and Mirjana Miletic & Jelena Momcilovic & Mirjana Miletic, 2024. "Analysis of the labour market and its impact on inflation in Serbia," Working Papers Bulletin 25, National Bank of Serbia.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsb:bilten:25
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nbs.rs/documents-eng/publikacije/wp_bulletin/wp_bulletin_09_24_1.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for accession countries: A univariate approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 584-603, September.
    2. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    4. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    5. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
    6. Tom Cusbert, 2017. "Estimating the NAIRU and the Unemployment Gap," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 13-22, June.
    7. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2019. "Beveridgean Unemployment Gap," Papers 1911.05271, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    8. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Staehr, Karsten, 2011. "A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 514-532.
    9. Lajos Tamás Szabó, 2015. "Estimates of the Non-accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) for Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2015/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    10. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "Testing Unemployment Persistence in Central and Eastern European Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 694-700.
    11. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
    12. repec:cdl:ucscec:qt7rn6h2gw is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
    2. Valerija Botric, 2012. "NAIRU estimates for Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 30(1), pages 163-180.
    3. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2015:y:2015:i:5:id:526:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "Testing Unemployment Persistence in Central and Eastern European Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 694-700.
    5. Dilem Yıldırım & Dilan Aydın, 2021. "One Crisis After Another: A Dynamic Unemployment Persistence Analysis For The Gips Countries," ERC Working Papers 2102, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2021.
    6. Gómez García, F. & Rebollo Sanz, Y. & Usabiaga Ibáñez, C., 2002. "Nuevas estimaciones de la NAIRU de la economía española: métodos directos," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 509-530, Diciembre.
    7. Stefano FANTACONEY & Petya G. GARALOVA & Carlo MILANI, 2015. "Structural budget balance and fiscal policy: The limits of the European approach," Yildiz Social Science Review, Yildiz Technical University, vol. 1(2), pages 19-34.
    8. Punnoose Jacob & Martin Wong, 2018. "Estimating the NAIRU and the Natural Rate of Unemployment for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2018/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    9. Jordi Galí, 2015. "Insider-outsider labor markets, hysteresis and monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 1506, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2020.
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    13. Lucas Papademos, 2005. "Macroeconomic theory and monetary policy: the contributions of Franco Modigliani and the ongoing debate," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 187-214.
    14. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Gordana Marjanovic & Ljiljana Maksimovic & Nenad Stanisic, 2015. "Hysteresis and the NAIRU: The Case of Countries in Transition," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(5), pages 503-515.
    16. Federico Bassi, 2020. "Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    17. Aurélien Gaimon & Vincent Lapegue & Paola Veroni & Noé N'Semi & Frédéric Reynés & Maël Theulière, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle ? A theoretical and empirical appraisal," Working Papers hal-03602950, HAL.
    18. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Ștefan George & Paraschiv Anca & Volintiru Clara, 2022. "Alternative Unemployment Rates in Romania," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 16(1), pages 1491-1504, August.
    20. Jordi Galí, 2015. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem Revisited," NBER Working Papers 21430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Aurélien Gaimon & Vincent Lapegue & Paola Veroni & Noé N'Semi & Frédéric Reynés & Maël Theulière, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle ? A theoretical and empirical appraisal," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03602950, HAL.
    24. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2017. "Unemployment hysteresis and structural change in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1415-1440, December.
    25. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9726 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Jonathan Garita-Garita & Catalina Sandoval-Alvarado, 2023. "Estimating Labor Market Slackness in Costa Rica," Documentos de Trabajo 2302, Banco Central de Costa Rica.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nsb:bilten:25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marko Miseljic (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbjgvyu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.