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Green Fiscal Reforms and the Demographic Squeeze: Lessons from Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Jared C. Carbone

    (Department of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines, Colorado, USA)

  • Maxwell Fleming

    (Department of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines, Colorado, USA)

  • Akio Yamazaki

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan)

Abstract

We investigate how demographic change affects the efficiency and equity of carbon pricing using an overlapping generations general equilibrium model of Japan. Demographic change erodes the tax base, so that the fiscal response has a larger impact on welfare than the carbon policy itself. We find that implementing a carbon policy during Japan’s projected population decline reduces welfare costs by 11% relative to a steady-state population, especially when revenues offset capital taxes. However, microsimulation indicates that low-income households face higher short-run welfare losses under policies that are most efficient in the long run, highlighting a trade-off between efficiency and progressivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jared C. Carbone & Maxwell Fleming & Akio Yamazaki, 2025. "Green Fiscal Reforms and the Demographic Squeeze: Lessons from Japan," GRIPS Discussion Papers 25-11, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:25-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberton C. Williams III & Hal Gordon & Dallas Burtraw & Jared C. Carbone & Richard D. Morgenstern, 2014. "The Initial Incidence of a Carbon Tax Across U.S. States," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 67(4), pages 807-830, December.
    2. Sebastian Rausch & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2018. "The Intergenerational Incidence Of Green Tax Reform," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Frédéric Gonand, 2016. "The Carbon Tax, Ageing and Pension Deficits," Post-Print hal-01251698, HAL.
    4. Bovenberg, A Lans & Goulder, Lawrence H, 1996. "Optimal Environmental Taxation in the Presence of Other Taxes: General-Equilibrium Analyses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 985-1000, September.
    5. Roberton C. Williams III & Hal Gordon & Dallas Burtraw & Jared C. Carbone & Richard D. Morgenstern, 2015. "The Initial Incidence of a Carbon Tax Across Income Groups," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 68(1), pages 195-214, March.
    6. Lint Barrage, 2020. "Optimal Dynamic Carbon Taxes in a Climate–Economy Model with Distortionary Fiscal Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 1-39.
    7. Stephie Fried & Kevin Novan & William Peterman, 2018. "The Distributional Effects of a Carbon Tax on Current and Future Generations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 30-46, October.
    8. Laurence Kotlikoff & Felix Kubler & Andrey Polbin & Jeffrey Sachs & Simon Scheidegger, 2021. "Making Carbon Taxation A Generational Win Win," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(1), pages 3-46, February.
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    10. Frédéric Gonand, 2016. "The Carbon Tax, Ageing and Pension Deficits," Post-Print hal-01251698, HAL.
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    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects

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