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The Reluctant Retirement Trader: Do Asset Returns Overcome Inertia?

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  • Julie Agnew
  • Pierluigi Balduzzi

Abstract

We study a new and unique data set of daily aggregate transfers of funds between mutual funds held in 401(k) accounts. We find that 401(k) transfers correlate strongly and positively with contemporaneous daily returns in the corresponding asset class. GMM estimation based on the identification-through-heteroskedasticity methodology attributes part of this correlation to investors following positive-feedback strategies. A simulation shows that these strategies may lead to substantial utility costs. These findings have implications for 401(k) plan sponsors.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie Agnew & Pierluigi Balduzzi, 2012. "The Reluctant Retirement Trader: Do Asset Returns Overcome Inertia?," NFI Working Papers 2012-WP-01, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:nfi:nfiwps:2012-wp-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William N. Goetzmann & Massimo Massa & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2000. "Behavioral Factors in Mutual Fund Flows," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm135, Yale School of Management.
    2. Edelen, Roger M. & Warner, Jerold B., 2001. "Aggregate price effects of institutional trading: a study of mutual fund flow and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 195-220, February.
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    5. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Transaction costs and predictability: some utility cost calculations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 47-78, April.
    6. Guercio, Diane Del & Tkac, Paula A., 2002. "The Determinants of the Flow of Funds of Managed Portfolios: Mutual Funds vs. Pension Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(4), pages 523-557, December.
    7. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 523-543, December.
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    9. Julie Agnew & Pierluigi Balduzzi & Annika Sundén, 2003. "Portfolio Choice and Trading in a Large 401(k) Plan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 193-215, March.
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