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Estimating the Option Value of Waiting: A Dynamic Entry Game of the U.S. Local Telephone Competition

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Abstract

We estimate a dynamic oligopoly entry game in the early U.S. local telephone market. We observe the identities of potential entrants into local markets and therefore the waiting time of each potential entrant before it commits actual entry. To capture the feature of the data, we allow firms to be heterogeneous long-run players who have option value of waiting. We find that firm-level heterogeneity in entry costs plays a significant role in determining a firm's entry behavior into a local market. Our model can be used to conduct counterfactual simulations to understand the effectiveness of subsidy policies with different focuses.

Suggested Citation

  • Ying Fan & Xiao Mo, 2010. "Estimating the Option Value of Waiting: A Dynamic Entry Game of the U.S. Local Telephone Competition," Working Papers 10-14, NET Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:net:wpaper:1014
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    File URL: http://www.netinst.org/Fan_Xiao_10-14.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nicholas Economides & Katja Seim & V. Brian Viard, 2008. "Quantifying the benefits of entry into local phone service," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 39(3), pages 699-730.
    2. Allan Collard-Wexler, 2006. "Demand Fluctuations and Plant Turnover in the Ready-Mix Concrete Industry," Working Papers 06-25, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    3. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, 1993. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 497-529.
    4. Timothy Dunne & Shawn D. Klimek & Mark J. Roberts & Daniel Yi Xu, 2013. "Entry, exit, and the determinants of market structure," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 44(3), pages 462-487, September.
    5. Fiona M. Scott Morton, 1999. "Entry Decisions in the Generic Pharmaceutical Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(3), pages 421-440, Autumn.
    6. Martin Pesendorfer & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2003. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Games," NBER Working Papers 9726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ariel Pakes & Michael Ostrovsky & Steven Berry, 2007. "Simple estimators for the parameters of discrete dynamic games (with entry/exit examples)," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(2), pages 373-399, June.
    8. Avi Goldfarb & Mo Xiao, 2011. "Who Thinks about the Competition? Managerial Ability and Strategic Entry in US Local Telephone Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3130-3161, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    option value of waiting; entry; dynamic oligopoly entry game; telecommunications.;

    JEL classification:

    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
    • L96 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Telecommunications

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