IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/8751.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did Import Substitution Promote Growth in the Late Nineteenth Century?

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas A. Irwin

Abstract

The positive correlation between import tariffs and economic growth across countries in the late nineteenth century suggests that tariffs may have played a causal role in promoting growth. This paper seeks to determine if high tariffs stimulated growth by shifting resources out of agriculture and into manufacturing. The most rapidly growing countries were indeed those that reduced the share of employment in agriculture. Tariffs in agricultural exporting (importing) countries may have promoted (retarded) this shift, although two high tariff, high growth, agricultural-exporting outliers (Argentina and Canada) experienced export-oriented growth and did not pursue import substitution policies. This raises the question of whether economic growth led to changes in the structure of employment rather than changes in employment leading to economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas A. Irwin, 2002. "Did Import Substitution Promote Growth in the Late Nineteenth Century?," NBER Working Papers 8751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8751
    Note: DAE ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8751.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, Alan M., 1999. "Sources of convergence in the late nineteenth century," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(9), pages 1621-1645, October.
    2. Estevadeordal, Antoni, 1997. "Measuring protection in the early twentieth century," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 89-125, April.
    3. Morris, Cynthia Taft & Adelman, Irma, 1989. "Nineteenth-century development experience and lessons for today," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(9), pages 1417-1432, September.
    4. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
    5. O'Rourke, Kevin H, 2000. "Tariffs and Growth in the Late 19th Century," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(463), pages 456-483, April.
    6. L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
    7. Krueger, Anne O, 1997. "Trade Policy and Economic Development: How We Learn," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Douglas A. Irwin, 2002. "Interpreting the Tariff-Growth Correlation of the Late Nineteenth Century," NBER Working Papers 8739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Temin, Peter, 2002. "The Golden Age of European growth reconsidered," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 3-22, April.
    10. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650592, January.
    11. Lant Pritchett, 1997. "Divergence, Big Time," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 3-17, Summer.
    12. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Measuring outward orientation in LDCs: Can it be done?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 307-335, May.
    13. Peter Timmer, C., 1988. "The agricultural transformation," Handbook of Development Economics,in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 275-331 Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Josef Falkinger & Volker Grossmann, 2005. "Institutions and Development: The Interaction Between Trade Regime and Political System," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 231-272, September.
    2. Tena Junguito, Antonio, 2008. "Bairoch revisited : tariff structure and growth in the late 19th century," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wp08-04, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    3. Yilmaz Akyüz, 2005. "The WTO Negotiations on Industrial Tariffs : What is at Stake for Developing Countries?," Trade Working Papers 22080, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Grilli, Enzo, 2005. "Political economy and economic development in Latin America in the second half of the 20th century," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-31, February.
    5. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2005. "Appropriate Economic Policies at Different Stages of Development," MPRA Paper 20066, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sibylle H. Lehmann and Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2008. "The structure of protection and growth in the late 19th century," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp269, IIIS.
    7. Robert E. Baldwin, 2004. "Openness and Growth: What's the Empirical Relationship?," NBER Chapters,in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 499-526 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Antonio Tena Junguito, 2010. "Tariff History Lessons from the European Periphery. Protection Intensity and the Infant Industry Argument in Spain and Italy 1870-1930," Historical Social Research (Section 'Cliometrics'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 35(1), pages 340-363.
    9. Yilmaz Akyuz, 2005. "The WTO Negotiations on Industrial Tariffs: What is at Stake for Developing Countries?," Working Papers 2005/8, Turkish Economic Association.
    10. repec:bla:ecaffa:v:37:y:2017:i:3:p:397-410 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
    12. Mustafa Akal, 2006. "Causalities Among Growth Related Policy Variables In Turkey, 1950-2004," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(3).
    13. Michael A. Clemens & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2002. "Why Did the Tariff-Growth Correlation Reverse After 1950?," NBER Working Papers 9181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Tena Junguito, Antonio, 2001. "Measuring protection over time : revenue and protective products in the 19th century European tariff growth debate," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wh017204, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    15. Sanz Villarroya, Isabel, 2003. "Derechos de propiedad y crecimiento económico en Argentina : 1875-1990," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH dh030403, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8751. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () or (Joanne Lustig). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.